Toth wins Texas Republican House primary, DDHQ projects

Toth wins Texas Republican House primary, DDHQ projects

Toth Defeats Crenshaw in Texas GOP House Primary, DDHQ Projects

In a closely watched contest, state Rep. Steve Toth unseated incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd District Republican primary, according to Decision Desk HQ projections. The race, marked by sharp ideological divides and significant campaign spending, highlights shifting dynamics within the GOP base ahead of the 2026 general election.

Crenshaw, a five-term congressman and vocal supporter of Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, faced criticism from conservative primary voters for his foreign policy stance and perceived moderation on key issues. Toth, a state legislator and prominent critic of Crenshaw, leveraged strong endorsements, including support from Sen. Ted Cruz and former President Donald Trump’s allies, to secure victory. Notably, Crenshaw was the only incumbent House Republican from Texas not endorsed by Trump in the primary.

Financially, the race was uneven. Crenshaw outraised Toth $2.1 million to $589,000 through March 1, while outside groups spent $2.9 million supporting Crenshaw or attacking Toth, compared to $857,000 for Toth’s campaign. Despite this spending advantage, Toth’s grassroots appeal and alignment with hardline conservative priorities, including stricter immigration policies and skepticism of U.S. military interventions, resonated with primary voters.

The defeat marks a rare primary loss for a sitting member of Congress in Texas, a state where incumbents typically dominate. Crenshaw’s challenges reflect broader tensions within the Republican Party over policy priorities and electability, particularly in districts redrawn by the 2026 redistricting process.

Toth’s victory positions him to face Democratic Rep. Al Green in the general election, though Green’s own primary challenge by Christian Menefee could alter the competitive landscape. For now, the outcome underscores the influence of primary-driven realignments in shaping congressional races, with financial resources and ideological purity often outweighing incumbent advantages.

As Texas’ March 3 primary results unfold, this race serves as a case study in the interplay of campaign spending, endorsements, and voter sentiment in determining electoral outcomes.

(Decision Desk HQ analysis of campaign finance and polling data): Redistricting impacts outlined in Texas House primary race summaries.