TotalEnergies Soars Over 3.5%—Can This Rally Sustain the Energy Giant’s Momentum?

Summary
• TotalEnergies (TTE) surges to $89.985, up 3.55% intra-day.
• Shares breach 52-week high of $91.38 at one point.
• New plastics recycling plant and Angola gas output kick off this week.

TotalEnergies is surging in early March trading, with the stock up more than 3.5% on the day. The move defies a broader market sell-off and is fueled by a string of operational updates. This includes the launch of a 15,000-ton plastics recycling plant in France and the start of production at the Quiluma offshore gas field in Angola. The company’s stock is also sitting 27.4% above its 100-day moving average, signaling strong near-term demand.

Plastics Recycling Plant and Angola Gas Production Ignite TotalEnergies’ Rally
TotalEnergies’ stock gained significant traction after the company announced the launch of its advanced plastics recycling plant in France. The facility, a key part of the Grandpuits zero-crude platform, converts hard-to-recycle plastics into synthetic oil, which will be used in the production of food-grade and medical plastics. The move is a major step in the company’s low-carbon strategy and highlights TotalEnergies’ leadership in the circular economy. Simultaneously, the start of production at the Quiluma offshore gas field in Angola added to the positive momentum. This marks the company’s first non-associated gas development and is expected to supply the Angola LNG plant and international markets. These twin operational wins generated strong investor optimism, especially in a broader market that was trending lower.

Oil & Gas Sector Mixed as Exploration Activity Picks Up
While TotalEnergies is rallying, the broader Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector remains mixed. Recent sector news highlights growing exploration and production activities across the globe, from deepwater finds in Colombia and Angola to U.S. sanctions easing in Venezuela. Petrobras (PBR), for example, recently announced a major gas discovery off the coast of Colombia, which could further strengthen the sector’s long-term outlook. However, the sector is still reacting to geopolitical risks, including recent missile strikes on QatarEnergy’s LNG assets and volatility in global LNG demand. TotalEnergies’ strong performance stands out against this backdrop, particularly as it moves beyond traditional fossil fuels into plastics recycling and low-carbon initiatives.

ETFs and Options Playbook: Positioning for TTE’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: 65.35 (well below current price)
• RSI: 73.88 (overbought)
• MACD: 2.77 (above signal line 2.33)
• Bollinger Bands: 85.73 (upper), 80.26 (middle), 74.79 (lower)—current price at 89.99, near upper band
• Kline pattern: Short-term and long-term bullish trend confirmed
• Implied volatility across options is elevated but not extreme, signaling active market expectations

Technical indicators suggest TTE is in a strong short- and medium-term upswing. The stock is currently near its 52-week high and has strong momentum above key moving averages. The RSI at 73.88 hints at overbought conditions, but this may not deter aggressive buyers with a bullish outlook. TTE is also carrying heavy weight in ETFs like GUNR and FEZ, both of which have seen positive inflows, suggesting institutional reinforcement of this move.

Top Options Picks

• TTE20260417C95
• Type: Call
• Strike: $95
• Expiration: April 17, 2026
• IV: 30.18% (moderate)
• LVR: 70.28% (high)
• Delta: 0.2778 (moderate)
• Gamma: 0.0430 (high)
• Theta: -0.0418 (high decay)
• Turnover: 624,684 (very liquid)

This option stands out due to its high leverage ratio and strong gamma, meaning it will react aggressively to small price moves in the stock. With moderate delta, it’s positioned to gain as TTE continues to climb toward its 52-week high. The turnover is very high, ensuring ease of entry and exit. Assuming a 5% upside from current price (i.e., $94.48), the payoff would be $94.48 - $95 = $-0.52. However, with high leverage, this could turn into a profitable position if TTE continues to rally past $95.

• TTE20260417C90
• Type: Call
• Strike: $90
• Expiration: April 17, 2026
• IV: 29.45% (moderate)
• LVR: 29.99% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.5131 (high)
• Gamma: 0.0523 (very high)
• Theta: -0.0465 (high decay)
• Turnover: 81,116 (very liquid)

This is a safer play with a higher delta and high gamma, making it ideal for traders who expect a near-term continuation in the rally. The turnover is high, ensuring liquidity, and the moderate leverage ratio offers a good balance between risk and reward. A 5% upside to $94.48 would yield a payoff of $4.48. Given the stock’s current trajectory, this option is a prime candidate for aggressive bulls looking to play the short-term momentum.

Hook-style trading insight: Aggressive bulls should buy TTE20260417C90 into a bounce above $91.38 with a tight stop at $89.50.

Backtest TotalEnergies Stock Performance
The backtest of TTE's performance following a 4% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows promising results. The strategy achieved a 66.48% return, significantly outperforming the benchmark return of 38.25%. The excess return generated was 28.22%, indicating that the strategy effectively capitalized on market movements. With a maximum drawdown of 28.47% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.49, the strategy also highlighted its ability to manage risk alongside its growth potential.

TTE on the Brink: A Strategic Buying Opportunity or a Short-Term Spike?
TotalEnergies is currently riding a wave of momentum, driven by a combination of groundbreaking operational developments and a broader shift in investor sentiment toward low-carbon initiatives. With the stock near its 52-week high and strong technical indicators in place, the case for a continuation of the rally is compelling. The launch of the advanced plastics recycling plant and the commencement of production at the Quiluma gas field are major catalysts. Meanwhile, the oil and gas sector is showing signs of recovery, with exploration activity picking up globally. Investors should closely watch the TTE20260417C90 call option and the broader GUNR ETF for further confirmation of momentum. Sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) has also seen a modest 0.6% intraday gain, reinforcing a positive environment for energy names. For now, the message is clear: position for a breakout above $91.38, and watch for continued volume and momentum to confirm the move.