TotalEnergies Plunges 2.99%: Can This Earnings Slump Spark a Market Rebound?

Summary
• TotalEnergies (TTE) plunges 2.99% to $60.51, marking its worst intraday decline since 2021.
• Q2 net income drops 30% to $2.69 billion, missing estimates and triggering a 2.7% share price slump.
• Analysts project a 13.25% upside with a $68.53 average price target, despite rising debt and oil price volatility.

TotalEnergies' 2.99% intraday slump has sent shockwaves through the energy sector, driven by a 30% earnings decline and a bearish outlook on oil prices. Yet, analysts remain cautiously optimistic, citing strategic buybacks and dividend stability. With a 52-week range of $52.78–$70.50, the stock's short-term trajectory hinges on refining margins and OPEC+ dynamics.

Earnings Dismantled by Oil Price Collapse
TotalEnergies' 2.99% decline stems from a Q2 net income collapse to $2.69 billion, a 30% drop year-over-year, as oil and LNG prices tumbled 20% and 2.4%, respectively. Despite a 3% year-on-year production increase, lower realized prices and refining margins—down 39% to $35.3/ton—eroded profitability. The company warned of an impending oil glut amid OPEC+ unwinding production cuts, compounding investor anxiety. A $2 billion share buyback plan in Q3 offers a lifeline, but rising debt (up 89% to $25.9 billion) and a 22.6% gearing ratio signal financial strain.

Oil & Gas Integrated Sector Under Pressure as XOM Holds Steady
The Oil & Gas Integrated sector has lagged, with TotalEnergies joining peers like Equinor and Chevron in reporting weaker Q2 results. Exxon Mobil (XOM), the sector leader, has bucked the trend with a 0.57% intraday gain, bolstered by its $53 billion Hess acquisition and Permian Basin expansion. However, the sector's Zacks Rank #189 underscores a bearish outlook, as refining margins contract and renewable energy transitions complicate long-term growth. TotalEnergies' 2.99% drop mirrors sector-wide struggles, though its $2 billion buyback plan contrasts with XOM's capital-heavy strategy.

Capitalizing on Volatility: Options and ETFs for a Bounce
• RSI: 43.1 (oversold)
• MACD: 0.259 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 60.58–63.38 (price near lower band)
• 200D MA: 60.26 (price slightly above)

TotalEnergies is trading near its 52-week low, with RSI signaling oversold conditions and MACD hinting at a short-term reversal. The 200-day moving average (60.26) and Bollinger Bands (60.58–63.38) suggest a potential bounce to the $62–63 range. While the sector faces headwinds, the stock's oversold RSI and 13.25% analyst price target present a speculative trade. However, leverage and liquidity in options remain critical for directional bets.

Top Put Option: TTE20250815P60
• Code: TTE20250815P60
• Type: Put
• Strike Price: $60
• Expiration: 2025-08-15
• IV: 18.33% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 69.60%
• Delta: -0.417 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.035 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1397 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 3,792

Payoff Analysis: A 5% downside (to $57.48) would yield a 93.33% return, capitalizing on the stock's oversold RSI and bearish price action. The high gamma and moderate delta make this contract ideal for a short-term bearish play.

Top Put Option: TTE20250919P60
• Code: TTE20250919P60
• Type: Put
• Strike Price: $60
• Expiration: 2025-09-19
• IV: 17.63% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 41.19%
• Delta: -0.441 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0189 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0921 (modest sensitivity)
• Turnover: 289

Payoff Analysis: A 5% downside (to $57.48) would yield a 63.33% return, with a longer expiration (September) offering more time for the stock to trend lower. This option balances leverage and time decay for a mid-term bearish position.

Action-Oriented Insight: Aggressive short-sellers should prioritize TTE20250815P60 for a rapid 93.33% return if the stock breaks below $60. For a longer play, TTE20250919P60 offers a 63.33% return with moderate time decay.

Backtest TotalEnergies Stock Performance
The backtest of TSP's performance after an intraday plunge of at least -3% shows favorable results. The 3-day win rate is 53.90%, the 10-day win rate is 52.88%, and the 30-day win rate is 54.24%. Although the returns are modest, with a maximum return of 1.36% over 30 days, the consistency of positive outcomes suggests the strategy could be viable for investors looking to recover from significant dips.

Bullish Analysts Bet on $68.53; Watch for $60 Breakdown
TotalEnergies' 2.99% slump has created a compelling oversold setup, with analysts averaging a $68.53 price target (13.25% upside). Short-term traders should monitor the $60 support level and 200-day MA (60.26) for a potential rebound to $63. Meanwhile, the sector leader, Exxon Mobil (XOM, +0.57%), highlights divergent strategies in capital allocation. A breakdown below $60 could trigger a wave of put option activity, but the 13.25% analyst upside suggests volatility may yet favor bulls. Watch for $60 and $63 levels, and consider TTE20250815P60 for a bearish play if the stock tests its 52-week low.