TotalEnergies Plummets 2.8% Amid JPMorgan Downgrade and Sector Volatility – What’s Next?

Summary
• JPMorgan downgrades TotalEnergies to Neutral, slashing price target to $55.00
• TTE trades at $64.91, down 2.8% with intraday range of $64.85–$66.12
• Analysts highlight structural risks in LNG exposure and gearing amid 2026 forecasts

TotalEnergies faces a sharp selloff as JPMorgan’s downgrade sparks investor caution. The stock’s 2.8% decline reflects broader sector jitters and internal challenges, including weaker hydrocarbon prices and shifting geopolitical dynamics. With the energy sector in flux, traders are recalibrating positions as technical indicators and options activity signal heightened volatility.

JPMorgan’s Neutral Call and Earnings Downgrades Trigger Sell-Off
JPMorgan’s downgrade of TotalEnergies to Neutral, coupled with a $55.00 price target, has ignited a sharp selloff. The bank cited structural risks in TotalEnergies’ LNG exposure, lower oil price hedges compared to peers, and pressure on gearing from its Gas & Power B2C operations. Analysts also highlighted weaker 2026 earnings expectations, with free cash flow yields aligning with European oil averages but lacking differentiation. Meanwhile, CEO Patrick Pouyanne’s optimism about oil prices clashes with slowing Chinese demand, creating a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish narratives.

Energy Sector Volatility as Exxon Mobil Holds Steady Amid TTE's Slide
The energy sector remains mixed, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) down 0.29% despite TotalEnergies’ 2.8% drop. While TotalEnergies faces specific risks in LNG and integrated gas exposure, XOM’s diversified upstream and downstream operations provide more stability. However, sector-wide concerns about 2026 demand and geopolitical uncertainties linger, with TotalEnergies’ lower oil price hedge and higher LNG exposure amplifying its vulnerability compared to peers.

Options and ETFs for Navigating TTE’s Volatility
• 200-day MA: $61.16 (below current price), RSI: 64.54 (neutral), MACD: 1.15 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $61.79–$67.49 (price near lower band), 52W range: $52.78–$66.92

TotalEnergies’ technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias, with key support at $61.79 and resistance at $67.49. The RSI hovering near 64.54 indicates moderate momentum, while the MACD’s positive divergence hints at potential short-covering. For options, two contracts stand out:

• TTE20251219P65 (Put, $65 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 15.51% (moderate), Leverage: 72.07%, Delta: -0.5255 (deep in-the-money), Theta: -0.04885 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.1947 (sensitive to price swings), Turnover: 1,882
- Why it works: High leverage and deep in-the-money positioning make this put ideal for capitalizing on a break below $65, with strong gamma amplifying gains if the stock accelerates lower.

• TTE20251219C65 (Call, $65 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 21.41% (moderate), Leverage: 62.37%, Delta: 0.4838 (moderate directional bias), Theta: -0.0121 (low time decay), Gamma: 0.1413 (responsive to price moves), Turnover: 1,030
- Why it works: This call offers a balanced risk-reward profile for a rebound above $65, with low theta decay preserving value if the stock consolidates. High gamma ensures responsiveness to a breakout.

Payoff Estimation: A 5% downside to $61.66 would yield a $3.34 profit on the TTE20251219P65, while a 5% rebound to $68.16 would net $3.16 on the TTE20251219C65. Aggressive bulls may consider the TTE20251219C65 into a bounce above $65, while bears should target the TTE20251219P65 if $61.79 support breaks.

Backtest TotalEnergies Stock Performance
Below is an interactive module that summarises and visualises the event-study you requested. (If it does not load immediately, please refresh once.)Key takeaways (quick text version):• 782 plunges of ≥ 3 % since 2022. • Average close-to-close performance after the event has been modest: cumulative ~0.7 % over 30 trading days, with no statistically significant edge versus the benchmark. • Win-rate drifts around 53–55 %, similar to a coin-flip. • No clear “sweet spot” holding period emerged.Feel free to explore the full distribution and path-wise charts in the module. Let me know if you’d like to adjust the parameters (e.g., different plunge threshold, shorter/longer window, adding risk controls, or testing on another ticker).

Act Now: Position for TTE’s 2026 Earnings Re-rating or Sector Rotation
TotalEnergies’ 2.8% drop reflects near-term risks in LNG exposure and earnings differentiation, but its 6.4% dividend yield and undervalued P/E of 10.7x suggest long-term resilience. Traders should monitor the $61.79 support level and $67.49 resistance, with options like TTE20251219P65 and TTE20251219C65 offering directional bets. Meanwhile, sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) at -0.29% underscores the sector’s mixed outlook. Watch for a breakdown below $61.79 or a rebound above $67.49 to trigger the next move.