TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG Restart: A Crossroads for Global LNG Supply and African Energy Investment

The $20 billion TotalEnergies-led LNG project in Mozambique, once stalled by militant violence, is now inching toward revival. With a targeted 2029 start-up and potential to produce up to 43 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of liquefied natural gas, the project's success—or failure—will ripple through global energy markets and shape investment opportunities in Africa's emerging energy infrastructure.

Current Status and Milestones: Progress Amid Peril

TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG venture, located in the Cabo Delgado province, has reached critical junctures. Contractors like Mota-Engil and Besix Group are reactivating site preparations, while the U.S. Export-Import Bank's $5 billion loan approval in March 2025 marked a pivotal financial seal of approval. CEO Patrick Pouyanne has framed remaining hurdles as “paperwork,” but analysts caution that security risks and unresolved human rights investigations could derail timelines.

The project's scale is staggering: two liquefaction trains and a 43 mtpa capacity would make it one of Africa's largest LNG facilities. For context, highlight how this project could add 5-7% to Africa's total LNG output, potentially displacing older supply hubs in Asia and Australia.

Navigating Risks: Security, Rights, and Bureaucracy

The project's path is fraught with challenges. Militant attacks linked to Islamic State affiliates—responsible for halting operations in 2021—remain active. While Mozambique's military, along with Rwandan allies, has secured key zones, analysts warn that renewed violence could disrupt progress. Compounding this is a human rights investigation into alleged abuses by security forces during 2021 operations, which TotalEnergies itself requested in 2024.

Bureaucratic hurdles also loom. The U.S. Export-Import Bank's due diligence flagged risks like facility damage, rising security costs, and reduced local labor participation due to ongoing instability. For investors, these factors translate into execution risk—a critical consideration given the project's $20 billion price tag.

Global LNG Supply Dynamics: A New Player in a Tight Market

The Mozambique LNG project's success could reshape global LNG flows. At full capacity, it would rival projects in Nigeria (9.4 mtpa) and Senegal (3.4 mtpa), positioning Africa as a growing LNG supplier. This is timely: reveals how investors are pricing in the project's potential.

However, competition is fierce. Qatar's North Field Expansion and Australia's Wheatstone project dominate the near-term supply landscape. TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG must navigate this crowded field, leveraging Africa's strategic location to serve Asian and European markets more efficiently.

Investment Opportunities: Betting on African Energy Infrastructure

The Mozambique project underscores a broader theme: Africa's energy infrastructure is a high-risk, high-reward frontier. For investors, the project's revival signals that large-scale LNG ventures in Africa are viable—if properly managed. Key opportunities include:

1. Direct Equity in TotalEnergies: The company's expertise in LNG and geopolitical risk management positions it to capitalize on African projects. However, its stock price () reflects broader energy market volatility.
2. African Energy ETFs: Funds like the Africa Energy ETF (GMLP) offer diversified exposure to African oil and gas projects, though they carry concentrated risk in volatile regions.
3. Competitor Plays: Eni's offshore LNG projects (e.g., Coral North) offer lower-risk alternatives, with shorter timelines and smaller footprints.

Investment Considerations: Balancing Reward and Risk

Investors must weigh three factors:
- Security: Mozambique's instability could delay the project beyond 2029, impacting returns.
- Economics: The project's 43 mtpa capacity could generate $2 billion annually in revenue, but costs could balloon if security measures escalate.
- Geopolitics: Mozambique's government faces pressure to ensure local economic benefits, which could lead to renegotiated terms or labor disputes.

Conclusion: A Strategic Gamble with Global Implications

TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project is more than a single venture—it's a test case for Africa's role in the global energy transition. Success would validate the continent's potential as a LNG powerhouse, attracting capital to other African projects. Failure could deter investors, reinforcing perceptions of Africa as a high-risk energy frontier.

For investors, this is a call to diversify: pair exposure to TotalEnergies with broader African energy plays like Eni or African ETFs, while monitoring geopolitical developments. The Mozambique LNG project's outcome will not just shape TotalEnergies' future—it could redefine the calculus of investing in Africa's energy renaissance.

As President Chapo emphasizes, economic growth alone won't stabilize the region without equitable wealth distribution—a reminder that Africa's energy investments must align with social progress to endure.