Why TotalEnergies is the European Energy Titan Outshining Buffett's Picks

The energy sector is at a crossroads: traditional oil giants face declining demand, while renewable pioneers grapple with scalability. Amid this transition, TotalEnergies (TTE.PA) stands out as a rare hybrid—combining the stability of oil & gas with the growth potential of renewables. Unlike Chevron (CVX) and Occidental (OXY)—two favorites of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway—TotalEnergies offers a uniquely balanced portfolio, a superior dividend yield, and a strategy aligned with long-term energy trends. Here's why investors should act now.

The Dividend Edge: 6.7% Yield vs. Cyclicality and Debt Risks

TotalEnergies' dividend yield of 6.7% (as of June 2025) towers over Buffett's picks: Chevron's 5.2% and Occidental's 5.8%. This gap isn't luck—it's strategy. The company has raised dividends by 7% annually since 2023, backed by a robust balance sheet with normalized gearing of just 造11%. By contrast, Occidental's debt-to-equity ratio hovers near 150%, a vulnerability in a rising-rate environment.

Chevron's yield, while respectable, is tied to oil price cycles. TotalEnergies' diversified revenue streams—35% from renewables and low-carbon projects—insulate it from commodity volatility. “This is not just a dividend play,” says one energy analyst. “It's a bet on a company that's future-proofing its cash flows.”

The Clean Energy Pivot: Where Buffett Missed the Boat

Buffett's energy bets—Chevron for oil resilience and Occidental for shale innovation—are classic Buffett plays: stable, undervalued, and underappreciated. But they lack one critical element: clean energy integration. TotalEnergies, meanwhile, is executing a dual-track strategy that Berkshire's portfolio overlooks:

1. Oil & Gas Mastery: Production rose 4% YoY to 2.56 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q1 2025, driven by projects in Brazil, the U.S., and Denmark. This provides the cash flow to fund renewables.
2. Renewables Acceleration: A $2.5 billion investment in 2025 alone targets wind, solar, and green hydrogen. Acquisitions like the German renewables firm VSB and Canadian solar projects are building scale.
3. Power Plays: Its integrated power division (including storage and grids) now contributes 15% of EBITDA, up from 8% in 2022. This vertical integration mimics the moats Berkshire builds in utilities.

The result? A $7 billion annual free cash flow machine, with 60% allocated to dividends and growth projects. Even as Occidental's Permian shale plays face water management lawsuits and Chevron's refining margins weaken, TotalEnergies is scaling renewables at a pace few rivals match.

Technical Momentum: A Stock on the Move

The stock's fundamentals are aligning with price action. Technical indicators show a bullish breakout:

• Current Price: €62.19 (June 2025), up 12% from a year ago.
• Short-Term Signal: The 50-day SMA has crossed above the 200-day SMA—a classic “golden cross” bullish sign.
• Analyst Consensus: 18 of 22 analysts rate TTE “Buy,” with a 12-month target of €70 (12% upside).

The June 2025 dividend payment (€0.85/share) is just the start. With its shareholder return policy targeting 7% annual dividend growth, the yield could climb further as shares stabilize.

The Buffett Factor: Why This Is a Missed Opportunity

Berkshire's energy holdings are undeniably strong, but they lack TotalEnergies' hybrid model. Chevron's dividend is reliable but lacks growth catalysts; Occidental's shale assets are high-risk, high-reward. TotalEnergies offers the best of both worlds:

• Stability: Oil & gas cash flows fund dividends and renewables.
• Growth: Renewables and power divisions are scaling exponentially.
• Governance: ESG metrics—carbon intensity down 6% YoY—appeal to institutional investors.

As Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy.” Here, the opposite holds: TotalEnergies is a rare “greedy-when-others-are-fearful” opportunity. With renewables now a $15 billion revenue stream and oil production still climbing, this is a decade-long play.

Act Now: The Transition is Here

The energy transition isn't a distant future—it's happening now. TotalEnergies' blend of dividends, diversified assets, and ESG leadership positions it to outperform cyclicals like Chevron and debt-heavy peers like Occidental. At a P/E of 11x (vs. 13x for Chevron), it's cheap for a growth story with stability.

The question isn't whether to own energy—it's which energy. For investors seeking both income and the future, the answer is clear.

Invest now, before the herd catches on.