UnitedHealth Group (UNH), a leading health insurance company, reaffirmed its guidance for the fiscal year 2023 (ending in December). The company expects earnings per share (EPS) to be in the range of $24.85 to $25.00, excluding non-recurring items. This outlook places the midpoint slightly below analyst expectations. 

Looking ahead to fiscal year 2024, UNH provided guidance for EPS between $27.50 and $28.00. This also puts the midpoint slightly below analyst expectations. UNH expects revenues for fiscal year 2024 to be in the range of $400 billion to $403 billion, surpassing market expectations.

The company projects operating cash flow to be between $30 billion and $31 billion for 2024, higher than its previous estimate of $27 billion to $28 billion for 2023. The ongoing recovery in the commercial business and anticipated demand growth are expected to enhance UnitedHealth's cash-generating capabilities. 

UnitedHealth Group has experienced consistent revenue growth in recent years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.9% from 2015 to 2022. This growth is expected to continue, supported by the strength of its UnitedHealthcare and Optum segments. The company's expanding membership base is also anticipated to contribute to its premium collection and service fees.

Analysts at UBS have maintained a Buy rating on UNH stock, along with a price target of $640. They note that the company's previous comments on its earnings call suggested that current consensus estimates for 2024 EPS are already at the higher end of UNH's likely initial guidance range. They highlight that UNH typically starts the year with conservative expectations and gradually increases its outlook over time.

UNH is the top weighted constituent in the price-weighted Dow Jones index. UNH makes up 10% of the Dow Jones thanks to its $500+ stock price. UNH slipped from $541 to $529 in reaction to earnings but has been able to recover most of those losses as it trades at $537. The initial reaction suggests some disappointment in the outlook, but, as UBS noted, the company tends to be conservative with its outlook. 

In summary, UnitedHealth Group has reaffirmed its guidance for the fiscal year 2023, with EPS expected to be between $24.85 and $25.00. Looking ahead to fiscal year 2024, the company projects EPS of $27.50 to $28.00 and revenues in the range of $400 billion to $403 billion. While the EPS growth rate for 2024 is slightly lower than UNH's long-term target, the company's strong market position, expanding membership, and strategic initiatives are expected to support its future growth.