Top Analyst: S&P 500 to Reach 10,000 by 2030
1min read Renowned market analyst Ed Yardeni has issued a strikingly bullish forecast for the S&P 500, projecting it will climb to 10,000 by the end of the decade. This optimistic outlook underscores the potential for significant gains in U.S. equities, driven by improving consumer and business sentiment alongside a pro-business policy environment.
Yardeni’s targets for the S&P 500 reflect a sustained growth trajectory:
- 6,100 by the end of 2024
- 7,000 by the end of 2025
- 8,000 by the end of 2026
- 10,000 by 2030
The forecast hinges on several key factors. Yardeni expects a resurgence of "animal spirits" in consumer and business optimism, reminiscent of the surge following Donald Trump's election in 2016. He notes that the stock market appears "thrilled" by the potential for a pro-business environment under a "red sweep," including tax cuts and deregulation, which could stimulate corporate earnings and economic growth.
Yardeni has raised his estimate for the S&P 500's 2026 operating earnings per share to $320 from $300, citing stronger-than-anticipated economic and corporate performance. This upward revision reflects his confidence in a robust earnings outlook over the medium term.
While Yardeni's forecast is undeniably bullish, he acknowledges the potential risks of a "meltup" in equities, a rapid and exuberant rally that could set the stage for a subsequent "meltdown." This cautionary note emphasizes the importance of prudent risk management, even in a favorable market environment.
Investors will likely weigh Yardeni’s projections against the backdrop of broader economic and geopolitical factors. The anticipated pro-business policies, coupled with a strong consumer and corporate sentiment, could fuel sustained growth in equity markets. However, uncertainties such as inflationary pressures, monetary policy shifts, and global market dynamics may temper the pace of this upward momentum.
As Yardeni’s forecast generates excitement among market participants, it also serves as a reminder of the importance of diversification and a long-term investment perspective. Whether the S&P 500 reaches the ambitious 10,000 milestone by 2030 or not, Yardeni's outlook reflects a strong belief in the enduring strength and resilience of the U.S. equity market.