Top 5 US-Mexico Trade Stories of 2024

As the year 2024 comes to a close, we take a look back at the most significant US-Mexico trade stories that shaped the bilateral relationship and had a profound impact on both economies. Here are the top five US-Mexico trade stories of 2024:

1. USMCA Panel Ruling on Mexican Biotechnology Measures
In December 2024, the USMCA panel ruled in favor of the United States, challenging certain Mexican biotechnology measures concerning genetically engineered (GE) corn. The panel found that Mexico's measures were not based on science and undermined the market access that Mexico agreed to provide under the USMCA. This ruling ensured that U.S. producers and exporters would continue to have full and fair access to the Mexican market, which is the largest export market for U.S. corn. The decision was praised by U.S. farmers and agricultural producers, who expressed relief that their access to the Mexican market had been secured.


2. Mexico Surpasses China as the Top U.S. Trading Partner
In 2024, Mexico outperformed China and Canada as the top trading partner of the United States. This shift was driven by several factors, including reduced transportation costs and a way to circumvent U.S. sanctions on Chinese goods for Chinese-owned companies. The surge in U.S.-Mexico trade led to a rise in truckload volumes moving from Mexico to the U.S., with volumes up 9% year over year on October 29, 2024.


3. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum's Trade Policies
In a crucial election year for both countries, Mexico elected its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum. Her trade policies, including the promotion of nearshoring and the modernization of food and agriculture trade, contributed to the growth in U.S.-Mexico trade. However, her administration also faced challenges, such as ongoing cargo theft incidents against carriers in Mexico and protests at border bridges highlighting labor disputes and poor working conditions.


4. USMCA's Impact on U.S.-Mexico Trade Growth
The USMCA's rules of origin and other provisions significantly contributed to the growth in U.S.-Mexico trade in 2024. The more stringent rules of origin for automobiles and trucks encouraged more production and assembly in the region, leading to increased trade between the U.S. and Mexico. The disciplines on currency manipulation created a more level playing field for American workers and businesses, while the modernized food and agriculture trade benefited American farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses.


5. Trump Tariff Threat and Trade Uncertainty
In 2024, President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada on his first day back in office. The tariffs were aimed at pressuring those countries to stop drugs and illegal migrants from crossing into the U.S. While it remains to be seen if Trump will go through with implementing the tariffs, the threat created uncertainty for shippers and raised concerns about how the tariffs could affect global freight flows. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum warned that Mexico could retaliate and raise taxes on U.S. imports to the country.


These top five US-Mexico trade stories of 2024 highlight the dynamic and evolving nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with significant implications for both economies and the global trade landscape. As we look ahead to 2025, it will be interesting to see how these trends and developments continue to shape US-Mexico trade.