Toncoin Whales Accumulate 80% More as Price Nears Breakout

Toncoin whales have been actively accumulating the cryptocurrency since 2021, with the top 100 whale addresses consistently increasing their balances. This sustained accumulation indicates a strong belief in the asset's long-term value and potential for future price appreciation. The rise in whale balances could serve as an early indicator of renewed upside potential for Toncoin. Tracking these wallets is crucial for understanding future shifts in liquidity, volatility, and overall market sentiment on the TON network.
Despite the whale accumulation, 71.28% of Toncoin holders are currently at a loss, which suggests broad market profitability. Only 11.52% of holders remain underwater, significantly limiting immediate sell-side pressure. A large number of holders accumulated Toncoin below the $3.05 mark, which now acts as a strong support zone. However, resistance may build as the price approaches higher clusters between $5 and $6, where many holders could exit to recover losses.
Toncoin's transaction data reveals expanding participation across both retail and institutional investors. Transactions between $1M and $10M surged nearly 80%, while those above $10M rose by 50%. Additionally, mid-tier ranges like $10K to $100K also saw significant growth, pointing to increasing diversity in user engagement.
The derivatives market for Toncoin has seen a 14.95% jump in volume, now totaling $174.86M, alongside a 4.28% rise in Open Interest to $230.72M. These increases point to renewed speculative interest, likely triggered by recent price structure tightening and whale accumulation. Increased leverage exposure often amplifies volatility, meaning future price swings could be sharper. The Binance liquidation heatmap shows significant short liquidation clusters around $3.31 and $3.50. If Toncoin's price continues climbing, these zones could trigger a short squeeze, adding buying pressure. Meanwhile, long liquidations remain minimal below $3.10, providing a relatively safe zone for bulls. Therefore, if Toncoin pushes above $3.31 and targets $3.50, cascading liquidations could accelerate its upward momentum.
Toncoin's price action has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, squeezing between the $3.505 resistance and $3.097 support. Historically, such patterns precede sharp breakouts, especially when paired with rising whale activity and increased derivatives volume. Therefore, if Toncoin breaks above $3.505 with strong volume, it could target the $4.72 region. Conversely, a drop below $3.097 may drag the price toward $2.28. Thus, Toncoin is at a critical juncture where its next move could define near-term market structure and sentiment.
Ultimately, despite most holders being at a loss, sustained whale accumulation and rising speculative interest favor a breakout over a selloff. If bulls maintain momentum and flip $3.50 into support, Toncoin could rally sharply. However, failure at this resistance might invite short-term pullbacks. Therefore, current metrics suggest whales are preparing for upside, not distribution—hinting at bullish continuation rather than capitulation.

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