Toncoin (TONUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Chart Analysis

• Toncoin declined 9.7% in 24 hours, breaking below key support near $3.27 after a massive 15-minute sell-off.
• High-volume divergence in early session suggests capitulation, while RSI near oversold levels hints at possible bounce.
• Volatility expanded sharply as Bollinger Bands widened, with price closing near the lower band.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in late session, potentially signaling short-term bottoming.
• Fibonacci retracement at 61.8% near $3.186 may offer critical near-term support.

Market Overview

Toncoin opened at $3.341 on 2025-08-24 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $3.402 and a low of $3.175 before closing at $3.209 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 10.1 million TON, with a notional turnover of $32.1 million.

Structure & Formations

The price action of Toncoin on the 15-minute chart displayed a sharp breakdown from the $3.34–$3.40 range following a large-volume sell-off at 19:45 ET, where price plummeted from $3.398 to $3.270 in a single bar. This massive bearish candle with a long lower wick suggests capitulation. Later, a bullish engulfing pattern formed after 08:00 ET, indicating a potential reversal. Key support levels are identified at $3.277 (61.8% Fib retracement), $3.232 (38.2%), and $3.186 (61.8% of the daily move). Resistance remains at $3.275 and $3.305, both of which appear to be short-term psychological barriers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20- and 50-period SMAs, confirming a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period EMA at $3.335 and 200-period SMA near $3.455 suggest Toncoin remains in a larger bearish trend, though recent price behavior near $3.200 may trigger a retest of the 50-period EMA as a potential pivot point.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line with bearish momentum, particularly in the morning session. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30 at $3.186, suggesting a potential near-term bounce. However, a sustained close above $3.230 is needed for a convincing reversal in sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sell-off from $3.398 to $3.270, with the price closing near the lower band at $3.209. This low volatility reading may indicate the market is oversold, but without a clear breakout above the middle band, Toncoin may remain in a consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

The largest 15-minute volume spike occurred at 19:45 ET, coinciding with the $3.27 sell-off, where over 1.4 million TON traded. Notional turnover surged to nearly $4.8 million during that period. However, volume declined sharply after the 09:00 ET consolidation, indicating reduced conviction. Price and turnover aligned during the breakdown, but divergence is now present as price remains near the session low without a matching increase in volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from $3.402 to $3.175, key levels include $3.277 (61.8%), $3.232 (38.2%), and $3.186 (61.8%). The price has tested the 61.8% level and may find temporary support near $3.186. A close below $3.186 would trigger a retest of the 78.6% retracement near $3.14.

Looking ahead, Toncoin appears to be in a critical short-term decision point. A sustained close above $3.235 may indicate buyers stepping in, but a break below $3.186 could accelerate the downtrend. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains elevated and divergence between volume and price could persist.