Toncoin (TON) Price Surges 10% as Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Momentum

Toncoin (TON), the native asset of The Open Network, has regained attention after a prolonged downtrend. Once trading above $5, TON has been consolidating below the $3.50 mark for several weeks. However, recent price movements suggest a potential shift in momentum, supported by improving technical indicators, rising volume, and renewed investor interest. This analysis delves into the latest chart data to understand the underlying dynamics.

On the daily chart, TON is currently trading near $3.17, attempting to recover from its earlier decline. The price is near a cluster of major moving averages, including the 20-day SMA ($3.08), 50-day SMA ($3.33), and 100-day SMA ($3.53). This compression often precedes significant price movements. A key bullish indicator is that TON has managed to stay above the 20-day SMA, forming a short-term higher low pattern. The Advance-Decline Line (ADL) is rising steadily, indicating improving market breadth and buyer dominance. However, the 200-day SMA at $4.56 remains a significant resistance level, suggesting that any meaningful breakout must first push beyond $3.50 to test the longer-term trendline.

On the hourly chart, TON appears to be forming a minor ascending triangle pattern, a bullish continuation setup. The price is testing resistance near $3.20, with all short-term moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200 SMA) converging in a tight band between $3.17–$3.23. This setup often acts like a coiled spring, where a break above the resistance could trigger a quick move toward $3.35 or even $3.50. The ADL on the hourly chart is flat but recently ticked higher, suggesting accumulation. Increased volume and a clean hourly candle close above $3.25 could mark the beginning of a short-term rally.

Toncoin’s ecosystem has been expanding with recent DeFi integrations and NFT launches, contributing to stronger fundamentals. Additionally, the broader Layer-1 narrative has been gaining traction, providing renewed hope for projects like TON that were previously overshadowed. Market psychology also plays a role, as many altcoins are recovering, making TON’s long period of consolidation under $3.50 look like a base-building phase. Traders are watching for confirmation through volume and breakout candles.

The immediate resistance lies at $3.25, followed by $3.50, which also aligns with the 100-day SMA. On the downside, $3.00 remains a psychological and structural support level. A close below that would invalidate the bullish structure and expose TON to a pullback toward $2.80. If TON breaks $3.50 with strong volume, the next target lies at $4.00, a round-number resistance and previous breakdown level from February. This would represent a 25% upside from current levels.

According to the analyst's forecast, assuming continued strength in altcoins and Bitcoin holding above key levels, Toncoin price could realistically target the $3.50–$4.00 zone within the next 30 days. However, this hinges on broader market stability and TON’s ability to close above $3.25 with volume confirmation. If bearish pressure resumes, a drop to $3.00 or even $2.80 could unfold quickly. Risk management is key.