Toncoin (TON) Price Forecast: Can Buyers Sustain the Recovery and Reach $1.91–$2.15 by January 2026?

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of volatility, and Toncoin (TON) is no exception. As of December 2025, TON trades at $1.74, a price point that sits at the crossroads of bearish short-term signals and cautiously optimistic long-term indicators. The question now is whether buyers can sustain a recovery to the $1.91–$2.15 range by January 2026-a target range that hinges on technical resilience, market sentiment shifts, and broader crypto market dynamics.

Technical Analysis: A Mixed Bag of Signals

Toncoin's technical outlook is a patchwork of conflicting signals. On the 4-hour and daily charts, the 50-day moving average is in a downward trend, while the 200-day moving average remains bullish, suggesting a weakening short-term trend but potential long-term strength. This divergence creates a critical juncture for TON: if the price can reclaim the $1.78–$1.79 support zone, it may trigger a bullish reversal. However, recent bearish action has already broken these levels, pushing TON to $1.76 amid a spike in trading volume.

A double bottom pattern is forming on the chart, a classic reversal signal that could propel TON back toward its neckline at $1.78. Yet, this scenario depends on buyers stepping in to defend key support levels. The RSI (14) currently reads at 39.94, indicating neutrality, while the MACD histogram has turned positive, hinting at early bullish momentum. However, the Fear & Greed Index remains at 24, underscoring widespread pessimism.

Market Sentiment: Fear and Flickers of Optimism

Market sentiment for TON is a tug-of-war between fear and cautious optimism. The broader crypto market is in a "Fear" state, with TON mirroring this pessimism. Yet, there are signs of stabilization. Trading volume surged by 41.7% in late December, and daily active users on the TON network have risen from 70,000 to nearly 100,000 over three months. These metrics suggest that while the price has declined from $3 to $1.4, the ecosystem remains active.

Telegram's growing involvement in the TON ecosystem-via projects like Cocoon and xStocks-has also injected optimism. However, this optimism is tempered by the fact that TON has fallen 67.89% over the past year, a stark reminder of the risks inherent in a bear market.

Can the $1.91–$2.15 Target Be Sustained?

The $1.91–$2.15 range represents a 28.89% to 36% upside from TON's current price. Achieving this would require a confluence of factors:
1. Technical Validation: A bullish breakout above $1.78 (the double bottom's neckline) and subsequent retesting of the $1.91 resistance level.
2. Volume Confirmation: Sustained buying pressure to push TON past $2.15 without a collapse in trading volume.
3. Sentiment Shift: A move toward "Greed" on the Fear & Greed Index, which would likely coincide with broader market rallies.

Analysts are divided. Some predict a rebound to $2.40 by January 12, 2026, while others warn of a potential correction to $1.60 if key support levels fail. The RSI's neutral reading and MACD's bullish divergence offer hope, but the risk of a breakdown below $1.42 remains a critical bearish trigger.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gamble

Toncoin's path to $1.91–$2.15 by January 2026 is plausible but far from guaranteed. The technical setup suggests a potential for a short-term rally, particularly if the double bottom pattern holds and the RSI avoids overbought territory. However, the bearish sentiment and fragile support levels mean that any recovery will be tested repeatedly.

For investors, the key takeaway is to monitor the $1.78–$1.79 zone closely. A successful defense here could validate the bullish case, while a breakdown would likely extend the bearish trend. Given the current environment, a balanced approach-hedging against downside risks while capitalizing on potential rebounds-may be the most prudent strategy.