Toncoin (TON) Gains 9.65% in Last Month Amidst Mixed Technical Signals and Regulatory Developments

Toncoin (TON) has gained 9.65% in the last month but is currently trading below its predicted price of $2.20 for January 20, 2026.

• Technical indicators for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) show mixed signals, with bullish patterns and overbought RSI suggesting potential correction.

• Russia's ban on WhatsApp could increase adoption of Telegram, indirectly supporting demand for Toncoin.

Toncoin has shown a significant rise over the past month, with the current price at $1.68 as of January 18, 2026 according to market data. The price is expected to potentially reach $2.20 by January 20, 2026, according to market forecasts. This movement aligns with recent bullish signals observed in the Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) market pair.

Recent analysis of TONUSDT indicates a mix of bullish and bearish momentum. The 50-period moving average on the 5-minute chart crossed above the 20-period, reinforcing short-term bullish momentum. However, overbought RSI and volume divergences raise caution about a potential correction.

The Russian government's decision to ban WhatsApp is expected to drive user traffic to Telegram, which is associated with the TON blockchain. While this could indirectly support Toncoin demand, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum remains dominant.

What Are the Short-Term Technical Indicators Suggesting for Toncoin?

Toncoin is currently trading at $1.715, below the 20-period moving average of $1.762 but above the 50-period moving average of $1.640 according to technical analysis. This indicates short-term seller pressure despite modest medium-term support. The daily MACD shows a strong buy signal, but ADX indicates weak trend strength. RSI is neutral-positive at 51.44, while the Stochastic RSI is in oversold territory as technical indicators show.

The expected five-day price range for Toncoin is $1.62–$1.81, with a low probability of sustained upside. A close below $1.69 could trigger a test of the $1.62 level, while a push above $1.76 is needed to shift the short-term sentiment to bullish according to market analysis.

How Does Regulatory Environment Affect Toncoin and Other Cryptocurrencies?

The regulatory environment in the United States has become more favorable for cryptocurrencies, with Robinhood expanding its offerings to include 50 different coins. This expansion is attributed to the pro-crypto stance under the Trump administration. Investors are advised to focus on cryptocurrencies with real investment cases, such as those operating on strong blockchain networks or providing unique diversification according to market reports.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are highlighted as cryptocurrencies with strong blockchain networks and real-world use cases as financial analysis indicates. Bitcoin is considered a hedge against a weaker U.S. dollar due to its limited supply, while Ethereum and Solana are noted for their energy-efficient consensus mechanisms and innovative blockchain features according to industry analysis.

What Are the Key Technical and Market Predictions for Toncoin in the Near Future?

Toncoin is currently trading below its predicted price of $2.20 for January 20, 2026. The Fear & Greed Index is at 61 (Greed), indicating market optimism that could signal overvaluation according to market data. Key support and resistance levels for Toncoin are at $1.72, $1.68, $1.65 (supports) and $1.79, $1.82, $1.86 (resistances) as technical analysis shows.

Technically, TON has faced bearish pressure, breaking a key support level at $1.75 with high-volume liquidations according to technical indicators. RSI is near oversold levels at 48, but the MACD's negative histogram shows bearish momentum remains dominant. Analysts suggest TON must hold above $1.70 for potential rebounds, with key resistance at $1.97 according to market forecasts.

Failure to hold $1.70 could lead to a decline toward $1.42. A move toward $2.16 could follow if $1.97 is broken according to technical analysis. Investors are advised to seek professional consultation before making investment decisions as financial guidance recommends.