Toncoin/Tether USDt Market Overview

• TON/USDT opened at $3.092, traded between $3.074 and $3.106, and closed at $3.077.
• Momentum waned with RSI dipping into oversold territory and a bearish divergence in price and volume.
• Volatility expanded overnight, with a key 61.8% Fibonacci level at $3.080 now acting as support.
• High volume seen during early morning ET pullback, hinting at potential short-covering or profit-taking.
• Bollinger Bands showed contraction near the 24-hour high and expansion during the late-night decline.

Price Action and Key Levels

The Toncoin/Tether USDt pair (TONUSDT) opened at $3.092 on 2025-09-05 at 16:00 ET and closed at $3.077 24 hours later, with a high of $3.106 and a low of $3.074. Over the course of the session, the pair experienced a bearish consolidation phase, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows after a failed attempt to break above $3.106. A key 15-minute doji appeared near the top of the day’s range at $3.104, signaling indecision. A notable engulfing candle formed on the downside at $3.074 in early ET, which marked a potential short-term bottom.

Support levels are forming at $3.074 (current close), $3.080 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the key rally), and $3.085 (recent pivot point). Resistance is at $3.093 and $3.102, with $3.106 as a major psychological level.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The 15-minute RSI dropped below 30 at the close, indicating short-term oversold conditions, though volume did not confirm a strong reversal. MACD remained bearish, with the line below the signal and both lines trending downward, suggesting ongoing selling pressure.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are bearishly aligned, with the price trading well below both. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) are also bearish, with TONUSDT trading below all three, reinforcing a longer-term downtrend.

Bollinger Bands reflected increased volatility after 03:00 ET, with the pair trading near the lower band during the late-night selloff. A contraction was seen near the high, hinting at a consolidation before a breakout attempt.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 1,173,975, with the highest volume spike occurring at 19:30 ET when the pair traded above $3.102. This was followed by a massive 213,000 volume candle at 21:30 ET when the price dipped to $3.085, signaling a potential reversal attempt that failed.

Notional turnover was highest during the 19:30 and 21:30 ET candles, with divergences between price and turnover suggesting that buyers were unable to sustain higher prices. The divergence between price and volume in the last 6 hours indicates a bearish exhaustion of sorts, though confirmation is pending.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the key 15-minute swing from $3.074 to $3.106, the 61.8% retracement level is now at $3.080, which the pair tested near the close and held. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest a potential rebound from $3.080 to $3.093 before encountering significant resistance again.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for TONUSDT could focus on Fibonacci retracement levels and volume divergence as entry signals. Specifically, a short entry could be triggered when the price breaks below a key 61.8% level (here, $3.080) on declining volume, with a stop above the 38.2% level. A long bias may be triggered on a confirmed close above the 20-period moving average with increasing volume. This approach aligns with the bearish trend observed in the last 24 hours and could be used to validate the pair’s continuation or reversal potential in a live market setting.