Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-11-05

Summary
• TONUSDT opened at 1.947 and closed at 1.963, forming a bullish 24-hour pattern.
• Price traded between 1.805 and 1.964, with notable volatility during the Asian session.
• Volume surged in the afternoon and again in the evening, confirming key price swings.
• RSI and MACD suggest moderate momentum with no clear overbought conditions.
• A bullish continuation may be expected with 1.97–1.98 as next targets.

Opening Narrative

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at 1.947 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 1.964 before closing at 1.963 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. Total 24-hour volume reached 10.69 million TON, with a notional turnover of approximately $20.69 million, reflecting significant on-chain activity and participation.

Structure & Formations

Over the last 24 hours, TONUSDT experienced a strong bullish reversal, particularly from the low of 1.805 to a high of 1.964. A key support area was identified at 1.88–1.90, which held during pullbacks. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 2025-11-04 19:30 ET, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend. A small doji near 1.947 at the opening suggests indecision among traders during the initial phase.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows TONUSDT trading above its 20- and 50-period moving averages, indicating a short-term bullish bias. On the daily timeframe, price remains above the 50- and 100-day moving averages but has dipped slightly closer to the 200-day average, suggesting consolidation after a sharp move.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed above zero in the morning and remained positive, supporting a bullish bias. RSI has surged to ~62, indicating moderate bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. No clear overbought conditions are present, but traders may watch RSI levels above 65 for caution.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the upper Bollinger Band during the early evening (2025-11-04 19:00–21:00 ET), indicating a period of high volatility. Volatility slightly contracted in the overnight hours, suggesting a potential buildup for another move. Price remains within the band, supporting a continuation scenario.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during two major price waves: first in the afternoon (19:30–21:30 ET) and then again in the early evening (16:45–18:00 ET). These spikes aligned with price breakouts and confirm strong institutional or large-cap participation. Notional turnover rose in tandem, with no divergence between price and volume, reinforcing the bullish case.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 1.805–1.964 swing, 1.929 (61.8%) acted as a minor support/resistance level during pullbacks. Price has now closed above the 1.944 (78.6%) level, with the next target near 1.97–1.98 (100% extension). On the daily chart, the 1.92–1.94 range appears to be a critical Fibonacci consolidation level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The attempt to retrieve TONUSDT's RSI data from 2022-01-01 to today encountered an issue, likely due to the ticker’s recent listing on major exchanges. To proceed with a backtest, we could either use the Binance version (TONUSDT since ~2023-10-27) or another exchange like OKX or Gate.io where the pair may have a longer history. Alternatively, you could provide specific RSI-70 crossover dates or suggest an alternative indicator (e.g., MACD or moving average crossovers), and we can tailor the backtest accordingly. Given the recent strong move and RSI behavior, a strategy based on RSI crossovers above 50, paired with bullish candlestick setups, may offer a viable approach if we can access the historical data.