Toncoin/Tether Market Overview (2025-11-13)

Summary
• Price declined from $2.025 to $2.014 amid bearish momentum in early hours.
• Volatility increased with a 24-hour range of $0.026.
• Volume surged in late trading hours, hinting at renewed buying interest.

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.024 on 2025-11-12 12:00 ET and closed at $2.014 by 2025-11-13 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $2.025 and a low of $1.984. The 24-hour volume was approximately 7.48 million TON tokens, with a notional turnover of $14.87 million.

The 15-minute chart revealed a bearish bias early in the session, as a bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high of $2.025, followed by a sharp pullback to $1.984. However, a late afternoon rally, especially between 21:15 and 02:30 ET, pushed prices back toward the $2.02–2.06 range. Notably, a bullish harami pattern appeared around $2.005, signaling potential consolidation before a breakout attempt. Key support levels formed at $2.000 and $1.990, while resistance emerged at $2.025 and $2.050.

Moving averages showed a mixed signal on the 15-minute chart, with the 20-period (20SMA) crossing above the 50-period (50SMA), suggesting a short-term bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50SMA crossed above the 100SMA but remained below the 200SMA, indicating a potential intermediate-term bullish divergence.

MACD (12,26,9) on the 15-minute chart showed positive divergence in late trading, aligning with the price rebound toward $2.02–2.03. RSI14 moved into overbought territory above 70 during the late afternoon rally, suggesting a potential pullback. Bollinger Bands widened as volatility picked up, with prices frequently hitting the upper band during the final 5–6 hours, indicating heightened bullish sentiment.

Volume spiked significantly between 02:15 and 05:45 ET, coinciding with a price rally to $2.055. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the largest single 15-minute trade occurring at 02:15 ET, where $489,332 was transacted as prices climbed to $2.055. A divergence between falling RSI and rising price in the final 3 hours suggests a potential bearish reversal.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the $1.984–$2.055 swing highlighted key levels at 61.8% ($2.033) and 38.2% ($2.016), both of which saw strong price consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest results provide insight into a potential strategy using RSI14 as an entry signal for TONUSDT trades. With the RSI set to 14, an “oversold” condition was defined as a close below 30, triggering a long entry. Exit was set for the close of the third trading day, with no additional stops or limits. The strategy yielded a 17.95% total return and an annualized return of 11.20% from January 1, 2022, to November 13, 2025.

While the average trade returned +1.26%, the asymmetry between winners (+4.11%) and losers (–7.27%) suggests the strategy could benefit from tighter risk management, such as a stop-loss or dynamic trailing stop. The Sharpe ratio of 0.54 indicates modest risk-adjusted returns, and the worst drawdown of 24.18% highlights the need for capital management. Given the recent price action and late rally, an RSI-based strategy might benefit from a tighter entry band or a trailing exit strategy to capture sustained momentum.