Toncoin/Tether 24-Hour Market Overview

Summary
• Price declined from $2.077 to $2.014 over 24 hours, with a 15-minute RSI nearing oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded after 19:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening and volume spiking.
• A key support level appears at $2.033, while a bearish engulfing pattern formed on 16:30 ET candle.

Opening Narrative

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.071 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.014 at 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour range spanned from a high of $2.099 to a low of $2.003, with the total traded volume amounting to 3.39 million USDT and a turnover of $6.87 million.

Structure & Formations

The price action showed a bearish trend throughout the day, with a key support level forming at $2.033. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around the 16:30 ET candle, indicating a potential continuation of the downward movement. A doji at $2.038 around 17:00 ET hinted at indecision, but the subsequent decline confirmed bearish momentum. No immediate overhead resistance is apparent, though a prior high near $2.099 acts as a psychological barrier for a potential rebound.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have been trending lower, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is positioned slightly above the 200-period line, suggesting a consolidation phase following a broader uptrend. Price remains below both the 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating short-term bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the session and remained in negative territory, reinforcing the downward trend. The RSI reached oversold territory below 30 on several occasions, notably at the 16:15 ET and 16:30 ET candles, suggesting a possible short-term bounce but not a reversal. Momentum remains weak, and a rebound could be met with selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 18:45 ET, reflecting increased volatility. The price has spent most of the session near the lower band, especially after the 16:30 ET candle, indicating a strong bearish bias. A bounce to the middle band is possible but unlikely to sustain without a shift in sentiment or volume.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply after 18:45 ET and remained elevated through the session, with the highest 15-minute volume recorded at $2.05 on 19:00 ET. Turnover spiked as the price dropped toward $2.003, suggesting a potential exhaustion of selling pressure. However, no divergence between price and volume was observed, indicating that the bearish move is still supported by conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from $2.099 to $2.003, key levels at 38.2% ($2.057) and 61.8% ($2.036) appear to have offered some short-term resistance and support, respectively. A break below $2.036 could extend the correction to the next target at $2.015, but a rebound above $2.057 may signal a resumption of the upward trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish RSI readings and overbought levels observed during the session, a backtest based on the rule “sell TON / USDT when RSI is overbought” could offer valuable insights into the potential profitability of such a strategy.
Using the default threshold of RSI ≥ 70 for entries and RSI < 50 or 20 calendar days as the exit criteria, the strategy would short TONUSDT at key overbought moments observed today, such as the 09:15 ET candle when RSI reached 87. The exit rule ensures a balanced approach between capturing momentum and minimizing drawdowns. If the RSI fails to retrace to a neutral level, the time-based stop prevents prolonged exposure to volatility. This strategy aligns with the observed bearish momentum and could be tested on historical data for accuracy and reliability.