Toncoin's Near-Term Bullish Momentum and Strategic Entry Points

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of volatility, but recent developments in the Toncoin (TON) ecosystem suggest a compelling narrative of recovery and potential breakout. As of late December 2025, TON has exhibited a confluence of technical and on-chain signals that warrant closer scrutiny for investors seeking strategic entry points in the short-to-medium term.

Technical Analysis: A Transition to Neutral-to-Bullish Conditions

From a technical perspective, TON's price action has shown early signs of stabilization. After testing critical support at $1.45–$1.55, the asset has remained above key moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, signaling a potential shift in momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has hovered in the mid-50s, a level that historically marks the transition from bearish to neutral-to-bullish conditions according to technical analysis. This divergence between price and momentum indicators often precedes a reversal, particularly when accompanied by rising volume.

Fibonacci retracement levels further reinforce this thesis. TON's recent consolidation near $1.40 aligns with the 61.8% retracement level of its earlier downtrend, suggesting a potential rebound toward $1.75 as the first target. A sustained break above $1.75 could trigger a cascade of bullish momentum, with subsequent targets at $1.89–$1.92 and the psychologically significant $2.10–$2.15 range according to market analysis. However, traders must remain vigilant: a breakdown below $1.55 could retest the $1.40 level, increasing the risk of a deeper correction.

On-Chain Metrics: A Resilient Ecosystem

While price action tells one story, on-chain data paints an even more optimistic picture. In November 2025, TON's monthly active wallets surged to 1.78 million, a 41.7% increase in daily trading volume to $154 million, and an average of 43,600 new wallet activations per day. These metrics underscore the network's growing utility and adoption, even as its price languished below $2.

Perhaps most striking is the divergence between TON's price and its daily active user (DAU) count. Despite a 53% decline in price from $3 to $1.40, DAUs rose from 70,000 to nearly 100,000 over three months. This disconnect suggests that investors and developers view TON as fundamentally undervalued, a sentiment echoed by the TON Foundation's focus on expanding real-world use cases, such as tokenized stock trading via xStocks.

Total Value Locked (TVL) in TON's DeFi ecosystem also provides a counter-narrative to its price performance. As of November 2025, TVL stood at $84.89 million, with platforms like STON.fi reporting a monthly trading volume of $105 million. These figures highlight the network's ability to attract liquidity and institutional interest, even in a bearish macro environment.

Strategic Entry Points and Risk Management

For investors, the current price action and on-chain dynamics present a unique opportunity. A strategic entry point could be established near the $1.45–$1.55 support zone, where TON has shown resilience. A stop-loss below $1.55 would be prudent to mitigate downside risk, while a take-profit target at $1.75 aligns with Fibonacci projections and could serve as a catalyst for broader market participation.

However, the broader altcoin market remains cautious, with TON lagging behind Bitcoin and Ethereum's recovery. Investors should consider allocating only a portion of their portfolio to TON, given the inherent volatility of the sector. Additionally, the integration of TON into Telegram's wallet ecosystem-a move that could unlock billions of users-provides a long-term tailwind, though its near-term impact is harder to quantify.

Conclusion

Toncoin's technical and on-chain fundamentals suggest a near-term recovery is not only plausible but increasingly probable. The interplay between stabilizing price action, rising volume, and divergent user metrics points to a market primed for a breakout. While risks remain-particularly in a macroeconomic climate still dominated by Bitcoin's performance-TON's unique position as a Telegram-backed blockchain with expanding utility makes it a compelling candidate for strategic entry. Investors who act decisively at key support levels may find themselves well-positioned to capitalize on what could be the next phase of TON's journey.