Toncoin Surges 40% on Telegram Founder’s Travel Approval

Toncoin (TON) has recently captured significant attention in the cryptocurrency market following a notable price recovery. The digital asset surged from $2.59 to $3.66, marking an impressive 40% increase. This rally was fueled by positive news surrounding Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s travel approval. However, as the bullish momentum begins to cool, with TON currently trading at $3.41, investors are questioning whether this upward trend can be sustained or if a pullback is imminent.

After the initial surge, Toncoin’s price has experienced a slight decline of 1.25% over the past 24 hours, indicating some market hesitation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also dropped from overbought levels to 53.31, suggesting a weakening in buying pressure. This phenomenon is not uncommon after a significant rally, as markets often need time to consolidate and stabilize. Additionally, the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) remains negative at -835K, implying that the recent price surge may not have been supported by strong accumulation. While weekend trading showed volume spikes, the current lack of excitement suggests that broader participation is needed to prevent a consolidation phase or short-term retracement.

Despite the short-term cooling, Toncoin’s fundamentals remain robust. Profitability metrics indicate that 73.82% of TON tokens are “in the money,” meaning the majority of holders bought below the current price of around $3.41. Only 12.25% of addresses are “out of the money,” suggesting minimal selling pressure or overhead resistance. This implies that most holders are sitting on profits, which ensures stronger confidence and reduces the potential for panic selling. Furthermore, the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio showed a dip in early March, just before the price breakout, indicating that Toncoin was undervalued and the subsequent price boom corrected this disparity.

On-chain activity also supports the bullish narrative for Toncoin. According to DeFiLlama, Toncoin’s Total Value Locked (TVL) rose from $140 million to nearly $170 million between March 15-17, signaling renewed investor confidence. This increase in TVL is often a leading indicator of growing faith in a blockchain ecosystem. Additionally, Santiment data highlights a sharp rise in whale transactions and sustained high social media volume before the price breakout. These factors combined suggest that speculation and market sentiment are aligning in favor of Toncoin. The price breaking above $3.40 with increasing trading volume further validates that the rally was not purely hype-driven but had solid participation.

Toncoin currently stands at a critical juncture. With solid on-chain metrics, high holder profitability, rising TVL, and increased whale activity, the foundation for further gains appears strong. While short-term pullbacks are possible and even healthy, the overall picture remains bullish. Unless sentiment suddenly changes or adverse macroeconomic occurrences happen, Toncoin seems firmly on its way to continuing its ascent. Investors need to keep a close eye on trading volumes, whale activity, and general sentiment to see whether TON’s rally still has room to breathe.