Toncoin Surges 40% on Durov News, Faces Short-Term Retracement Risk

Toncoin is currently at a critical juncture, with its recent price movements and on-chain metrics reflecting a mix of resilience and potential for further gains. The token experienced a significant rally following the news of Pavel Durov’s travel approval, surging from $2.59 to $3.66, an over 40% gain. However, the momentum has since cooled, with Toncoin trading at $3.41, down 1.25% in the last 24 hours. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped from overbought levels to 53.31, indicating weakening buying pressure.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) remained negative at -835K, suggesting that recent gains may have lacked strong accumulation. Volume spikes seen during the weekend were tapering, indicating potential hesitation among traders. Unless broader participation picks up, Toncoin risks slipping into consolidation or a short-term retracement.

Despite the cooling momentum, profitability metrics suggest strong holder confidence. 73.82% of tokens are “in the money,” indicating that most holders bought below the current price of $3.48. Only 12.25% of addresses remain “out of the money,” indicating minimal overhead resistance. The NVT ratio has shown volatile swings, but a clear decline in early March followed by a price breakout suggests undervaluation was corrected. As the price surged from March 13 to 15, the NVT ratio dipped, indicating that transaction volumes supported the rally. With NVT rising again and a majority of addresses in profit, Toncoin appears structurally resilient, although further upside may depend on sustaining high transaction volumes.

According to DeFiLlama, Toncoin’s Total Value Locked (TVL) surged from $140M to nearly $170M between March 15-17, reflecting renewed investor confidence. Simultaneously, Santiment data shows a sharp spike in whale transactions and sustained high social volume just ahead of the price breakout. Surging on-chain activity and social buzz typically signal strong speculative momentum. The price also broke above $3.40 with increasing volume – further validating the rally. While short-term pullbacks are possible, it appears that Toncoin’s uptrend has legs. Unless sentiment sharply reverses or macro conditions shift, Toncoin looks poised to maintain its bullish