Toncoin's Price Surge Reveals Key Support Levels

Toncoin ($TON) has experienced a remarkable surge in its price over the past year, but a deeper analysis of its on-chain data reveals significant insights into its current price levels and potential future movements. The distribution of its cost basis among holders across the network highlights four key areas where large amounts of supply are concentrated.

These cost basis zones are as follows: $2.01 to $2.05 with 1.32 billion TON, $2.18 to $2.22 with 535 million TON, $2.91 to $2.98 with 863 million TON, and $3.83 to $3.87 with 261 million TON. These ranges represent historical accumulation points and have acted as both psychological and technical price barriers. If the price of TON dips into these zones, it may encounter buying support from holders defending their entry points. Conversely, as the price rises, these levels could act as resistance, with investors looking to take profits or avoid adding to their positions.

One particularly notable detail is the $2.91–$2.98 range, where an estimated 863 million TON tokens are held by a single investor or a tightly coordinated group. This holding has shown remarkable discipline, mirroring the general TON price trend over several years without succumbing to local tops or panic-selling during corrections. This behavior suggests a long-term strategic outlook, viewing Toncoin as a core infrastructure investment rather than a short-term speculative play.

For traders, understanding these cost basis clusters provides actionable intelligence on potential support and resistance levels. If Toncoin drops back to the $2.91–$2.98 range, the presence of a large, disciplined investor suggests that level is likely to hold, making it a good buying opportunity. Conversely, a sustained move above $3.87 could indicate a move into new territory, presenting a strategic opportunity for traders.

For long-term holders, the presence of large, disciplined investors adds a layer of stability to Toncoin’s market structure. It indicates that the token is supported by capital betting on its sustained growth and real-world adoption, rather than being driven solely by short-term speculation. This multilevel base of investors is crucial for the maturity of the ecosystem, providing a solid foundation for the project's future growth.

The cost basis distribution of Toncoin not only provides historical context but also narrates a story of market maturity, disciplined capital, and an emerging structure. For investors and analysts seeking meaningful signals in the crypto market, the concentrated accumulation zones of TON and the presence of long-term holders offer clear indicators of the project's future. Anchored to identifiable price ranges, the billions of tokens that compose Toncoin suggest that its future market moves could be more strategic and less random than they appear.