Toncoin Price Faces Bearish Pressure, Potential Drop to $2.00

Toncoin (TON) has been experiencing a challenging period, struggling to regain bullish momentum over the past few weeks. The daily chart provides valuable insights into the potential next moves for TON's price. The latest Heikin Ashi candles, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and visible support levels all contribute to this analysis.

The daily price structure of TON indicates moderate bearish pressure, with the latest candle closing lower at around $2.79. The immediate resistance is marked near $2.80, a level that TON has failed to close strongly above for several weeks, confirming it as a short-term ceiling. The sequence of smaller-bodied candles suggests market indecision, which typically precedes a breakout or breakdown. Considering the last significant bearish swing from $3.40 to $2.70, a drop of about $0.70, applying the same range downward gives a potential target of $2.00. If bears push below $2.70 decisively, TON's price could test the $2.00 – $2.20 zone in the coming weeks.

The RSI (14) is currently around 39, below the neutral 50 line but not yet deeply oversold. This suggests that TON's price still has room to drop further before buyers see it as a bargain. The RSI last dipped below 30 in April, which triggered a rebound rally. Traders should watch for the RSI to revisit 30–32 as a potential bounce zone.

The chart highlights multiple horizontal levels for downside targets: $2.70 as the immediate support zone, $2.50 as the next major line if $2.70 fails, and $2.20–$2.00 as the critical demand zone if panic selling occurs. Each level aligns with prior price action from early 2025. The more times a support gets tested, the weaker it becomes, so $2.70 must hold if bulls want to prevent a deeper correction.

If buyers manage to push TON's price back above $2.80, the short-term picture becomes more positive. A breakout above this range could attract momentum traders, opening the path to retest $3.00 first and then $3.40, which was the last swing high. If TON's price rallies back to its previous top at $3.40, that’s a $0.70 gain, or about 26% upside from current levels. This potential upside matches the last major leg up in May, providing buyers with a blueprint for what’s possible if sentiment flips.

In summary, the bearish scenario suggests that if TON's price loses $2.70, a quick slide to $2.50 is expected, with $2.20–$2.00 as ultimate downside targets. Conversely, the bullish scenario indicates that if TON's price closes a daily candle above $2.80 with strong volume, a recovery rally toward $3.00–$3.40 is feasible. Given the neutral RSI and choppy candles, TON's price is currently more tilted toward sideways-to-bearish unless a clear breakout reclaims $2.80 soon. Traders should watch for decisive moves around $2.70 and $2.80, as these levels will determine whether TON's price finds relief or faces deeper losses this month.