Toncoin Price Drops 10% Since June Triangle Breakdown

Toncoin (TON) has been moving against the hopeful trend in the altcoin market. While many tokens are attempting to recover or move sideways, the Toncoin price continues to decline. This bearish movement is concerning for many traders, especially those using leverage. Each time the price fails to bounce, the likelihood of forced liquidations increases.

Analyzing the Toncoin price chart reveals that it broke down from a triangle pattern in mid-June. This triangle had formed since February and had served as strong support for months. However, when the price fell below the triangle’s support line, it confirmed that the downtrend was likely to continue. Since then, the TON price has been moving lower and has not been able to rise above old support levels.

The latest chart shows Toncoin price hovering around $2.80. It also indicates a very important support level at $2.36. This level is derived from previous lows earlier in the year. If Toncoin continues to fall, bulls will hope this support can halt the drop. A bounce from $2.36 could give the price a chance to recover. However, if $2.36 breaks, the bearish trend could worsen significantly.

While some traders are still hoping for a rebound at $2.36, others see more pain ahead. One market analyst, Ali, posted on X that $1.90 could act like a magnet for Toncoin. This means he believes the TON price could fall much lower, with $1.90 as the next big target. Ali’s chart shows why he thinks this could happen. His analysis includes the same triangle breakdown but also uses Fibonacci levels to project a possible drop below $2.36. According to his chart, if Toncoin keeps losing value, the next important support could be near $1.90. This level matches the expected move size after the breakdown of the triangle pattern.

In his post, Ali wrote “$1.90 is a magnet for Toncoin $TON,” showing how strongly he thinks Toncoin price could head down to that level. For traders, this is a clear warning to watch support zones carefully. If Toncoin breaks below them, the price could crash even harder.

The daily chart indicates that TON's price structure is under moderate bearish pressure, with the latest candle closing around $2.79. The immediate resistance is marked near $2.80, a level that TON has been unable to close strongly above for weeks, confirming it as a short-term ceiling. This indecision in the market, as indicated by a sequence of smaller-bodied candles, typically precedes a breakout or breakdown. If bears push below $2.70 decisively, TON price could test the $2.00 – $2.20 zone in the coming weeks.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 39, which is below the neutral 50 line but not yet deeply oversold. This suggests that TON price still has room to drop further before buyers see it as a bargain. Traders should watch for the RSI to revisit 30–32 as a potential bounce zone. The chart shows multiple horizontal levels drawn for downside targets: $2.70 as the immediate support zone, $2.50 as the next major line if $2.70 fails, and $2.20–$2.00 as the critical demand zone if panic selling occurs. Each level aligns with prior price action from early 2025. The more times a support gets tested, the weaker it becomes, so $2.70 must hold if bulls want to prevent a deeper correction.

If buyers manage to push Toncoin price back above $2.80, the short-term picture flips more positive. A breakout above this range could attract momentum traders, opening the path to retest $3.00 first and then $3.40, which was the last swing high. To illustrate this, if TON price rallies back to its previous top at $3.40, that’s a $0.70 gain, or about 26% upside from current levels. This potential upside matches the last major leg up in May, so buyers do have a blueprint for what’s possible if sentiment flips.

Putting it all together, the bearish scenario suggests that if TON price loses $2.70, expect a quick slide to $2.50, with $2.20–$2.00 as ultimate downside targets. The bullish scenario indicates that if Toncoin price closes a daily candle above $2.80 with strong volume, a recovery rally toward $3.00–$3.40 is feasible. Given the neutral RSI and choppy candles, TON price is currently more tilted toward sideways-to-bearish unless a clear breakout reclaims $2.80 soon. Traders should watch for decisive moves around $2.70 and $2.80, as these levels will determine whether Toncoin price finds relief or faces deeper losses this month.