Toncoin Price Bounces 25% but Bearish Trend Persists

Toncoin, a cryptocurrency, has been facing a challenging market environment, with its price experiencing a significant downturn. Despite a recent 25% price bounce over four days, the overall trend remains bearish. This price movement has left 96% of Toncoin holders in a state of loss, highlighting the severity of the market conditions.

The recent price bounce has given some hope to Toncoin bulls, but the daily market structure remains bearish. The high volume during the recent bounce suggests that there may be some underlying support for the token, but the overall trend is still downwards. The $3.85 resistance level is a key point to watch, as it could signal a bearish reversal if the price fails to break through.

Analysts have examined liquidation heatmaps to understand Toncoin's potential price movements. The recent lower high at $3.95 from February is a potential price target for Toncoin in the coming days. The MACD indicator remains below zero but has formed a strong bullish crossover, indicating a potential short-term bullish move. However, the overall trend in this timeframe remains bearish.

The high trading volume in recent days has caused the On-Balance Volume (OBV) to jump above the lows from December, sparking some hope for a bullish move. The Fibonacci retracement levels, plotted based on the rally from February to June 2024, show that the bounce above 78.6% is encouraging in the short term. However, there is resistance overhead, and the $3.95 target must be breached to effect a bullish market structure shift.

Even if the $3.95 target is breached, the $4.5 zone would likely act as a supply zone, making a quick recovery for Toncoin slim. The 1-month liquidation heatmap highlights liquidity pockets at $3.66 and $3.9, with the former level just above the highs from Saturday and the latter marking the lower high formed a month ago. These two levels are prime candidates for a bearish reversal to begin at.

Zooming into the 1-week heatmap, the $3.2 and $3.67 levels are the ones to watch out for. The liquidity around $3.2 is comparable to that around $3.6, but since $3.6 is closer, Toncoin is more likely to climb higher to sweep the liquidity before falling to $3.2. Swing traders can wait for such a move and then look for a reversal in the lower timeframes, targeting a retracement of the move. Usually, such strong reversals have a good chance to occur on Monday.

A move beyond $3.7 would invalidate the idea of a retracement to $3.2 in search of liquidity. Overall, the chances of a quick Toncoin recovery are slim, and the market remains bearish. Investors should proceed with caution and consider the potential for further downside before making any investment decisions.