Toncoin Plunges 2.36% After UAE Denies Golden Visa Claims

ChatGPT’s 42-signal TON analysis has flagged a critical support collapse at $2.70 for Toncoin, following a 2.36% plunge in its value. This decline came after the UAE government denied claims that staking Toncoin would grant holders a golden visa, exposing a credibility crisis within the TON Foundation.

The current price of Toncoin stands at $2.771, marking a 2.36% decline from its opening price of $2.838. This price action has established a trading range between $2.856 and $2.751, indicating heightened volatility as the scandal unfolds. The volume of trading has also decreased by 48.25% to $332.73 million, suggesting that institutional investors are exiting the market.

The technical indicators paint a bearish picture. Toncoin is currently trading below all major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 20-day EMA at $2.866, the 50-day EMA at $2.981, the 100-day EMA at $3.179, and the 200-day EMA at $3.701. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.02, approaching oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is at 0.001, with a negative histogram at -0.067, indicating significant bearish momentum.

The golden visa scandal has severely damaged the TON Foundation’s credibility. The foundation’s CEO, Max Crown, had announced that staking Toncoin would secure a 10-year UAE golden visa, a claim that was swiftly denied by UAE authorities. The authorities clarified that the TON Foundation lacks the proper licensing for such programs, and that visa programs require traditional investments, not cryptocurrency speculation. This revelation has led to regulatory scrutiny from bodies such as VARA, ADGM, and SCA, which have confirmed that staking is a regulated activity requiring proper licensing.

The scandal has also sparked a backlash from the community. Leaders such as Hipo Finance have condemned the misleading communication, calling it “unacceptable” and demanding accountability from the foundation’s leadership. The community sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, with approximately 60% of the sentiment focusing on governance accountability rather than technical analysis. This shift in discourse reflects a deep division among ecosystem participants and a unified demand for transparency and responsibility from the foundation.

Historically, Toncoin’s performance in 2025 has been marked by a dramatic decline from January’s high of $4.83. The subsequent correction to February’s $3.33, brief March recovery to $4.11, and continued decline through June’s $2.91 have established a concerning downtrend pattern. The current price action represents a 43% decline from January highs, though it maintains 609% gains from 2021 lows, providing a long-term perspective.

Support levels for Toncoin are critical at $2.70-$2.75, with immediate support at today’s low around $2.751. Major support zones extend to $2.600-$2.650 and $2.400-$2.500, corresponding to historical accumulation levels and previous cycle lows. Resistance begins at the 20-day EMA at $2.866, with more significant resistance between the 50-day EMA ($2.981) and the 100-day EMA ($3.179).

The market capitalization of Toncoin stands at $6.84 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $330.81 million, representing a significant 49.2% decline. The volume-to-market cap ratio of 4.85% indicates institutional withdrawal during the credibility crisis. The dramatic volume decline from previous levels confirms institutional positioning shifts away from Toncoin during the scandal fallout, validating technical analysis that suggests continued weakness.

Looking ahead, the 90-day forecast for Toncoin is uncertain. In the bull case scenario, successful leadership changes and transparent governance reforms could drive recovery toward $3.20-$3.50, representing 15-26% upside. This scenario requires immediate CEO accountability, regulatory compliance improvements, and restoration of community confidence through demonstrable governance changes. Technical targets include $2.98, $3.18, and $3.50 based on EMA reclaim patterns and historical resistance levels.

In the base case scenario, continued leadership denial and regulatory scrutiny could drive Toncoin toward $2.40-$2.60, representing 6-13% downside. This scenario assumes ongoing governance problems and failure to address fundamental credibility issues during summer consolidation periods. Support at $2.70-$2.75 would likely fail during an extended crisis, with volume remaining subdued at around 200-300 million daily.

In the bear case scenario, severe regulatory action or complete leadership failure could trigger a correction toward $2.00-$2.30, representing a 17-28% downside. This scenario would require additional regulatory enforcement or continued governance failures beyond the current scandal. The strong technical foundation and ecosystem utility limit extreme downside scenarios, with major support at $2.40-$2.50 providing critical long-term trend support for potential future recovery under new leadership.

In conclusion, Toncoin’s current positioning reflects the convergence of governance failure, regulatory scrutiny, and accelerating technical breakdown. The 42-signal analysis reveals a cryptocurrency positioned at a critical juncture between accountability recovery and complete credibility collapse. The golden visa scandal exposes fundamental governance problems that require immediate improvements in leadership accountability and transparency, while technical breakdowns below all EMAs confirm erosion of institutional confidence. The volume decline validates the withdrawal of professional investors during a credibility crisis. Current consolidation around $2.77 with critical support at $2.70-$2.75 creates a decision point for Toncoin’s survival prospects.