Toncoin Plummets 32% in Five Days as Whale Activity Surges

Toncoin, a cryptocurrency that had shown promising signs of recovery, has taken a bearish turn in recent days. The token, which had climbed above the $3.95 local resistance towards the end of March, was poised for a bullish trend. However, this optimism was short-lived as whale activity surged in early April, leading to a significant sell-off. The token lost 32% of its value in just five days, and the selling pressure has not eased, with a total loss of 26.6% in eight days.

The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) metric, which tracks whether TON is being sold at a profit or loss, had climbed above 1 towards the end of March, indicating a potential recovery. However, this ascent was short-lived, and the SOPR dropped below 1, signaling that coins were being sold at a loss. This drop coincided with a surge in whale activity, suggesting that large holders were selling their positions, contributing to the bearish trend.

The HODLer net position change metric, which reveals the monthly position change of long-term holders, showed that accumulation was underway in February and March as the price trended downwards. However, over the past ten days, the net position change has fallen even lower, indicating that holders were selling and a potential distribution phase was underway. This aligns with the recent weakness of TON and the surge in whale activity.

The bullish market structure break occurred on 27 March when the lower high at $3.95 was surpassed. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) had been above +0.05, signaling strong capital inflows since mid-March. However, this turned around quickly, and Toncoin fell by 32% in five days. The current outlook is bearish as the $3.5 support zone has not halted TON bears, and the CMF is at -0.14, denoting high selling pressure.

In summary, Toncoin's bearish turn can be attributed to a surge in whale activity and a potential distribution phase among long-term holders. The SOPR metric indicates that coins are being sold at a loss, and the CMF metric shows high selling pressure. The current outlook for Toncoin is bearish, and it remains to be seen whether the token can recover from this sell-off.