Toncoin Market Overview: Bullish Momentum Amid Volatile 24-Hour Move

Summary

• Toncoin surged from $3.209 to $3.343 in 24 hours, driven by strong volume and bullish momentum.• A key 15-minute breakout above $3.28 marked a potential short-term trend reversal.• MACD and RSI suggest rising bullish momentum, with RSI approaching overbought territory.• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility expansion, with price near the upper band.• Volume spiked during the late-night rally, confirming the strength of the upward move.

Market Overview

Toncoin (TONUSDT) opened at $3.209 on 2025-07-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.342 on 2025-07-18 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was $3.117 to $3.352, with a total volume of 6,689,333.46 TON and a notional turnover of approximately $21,698,336 (calculated from volume × price). The price action and volume dynamics indicate a strong short-term bullish bias.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a key breakout above the $3.28 resistance level, which had acted as a ceiling for several prior attempts. The breakout candle was a strong bullish engulfing pattern, confirming a shift in sentiment. A key support level appears to be forming around $3.146–$3.152, where the price previously found a floor. The recent high at $3.352 may now act as a near-term resistance or consolidation point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has moved above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting a short-term bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages are converging, which could indicate a potential support level if the price retraces. The 200-period moving average remains a long-term reference point for bearish traders.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line during the late-night rally, confirming bullish momentum. RSI has risen into overbought territory (above 70), which may suggest a potential pullback or consolidation phase. However, as long as the RSI remains above 60, the bullish bias remains intact. The divergence between price and MACD is minimal, indicating strong conviction in the current move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the late-night and early morning hours, with the Bollinger Bands widening and the price moving near the upper band. This suggests a period of strong momentum and potential exhaustion. If the price remains above the midline of the bands, the bullish trend is likely to continue. A close below the lower band could signal a reversal or a deepening correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night rally, especially between 05:15 ET and 05:30 ET, when the price surged from $3.298 to $3.341. Notional turnover also increased in line with price, indicating strong institutional or large-cap investor participation. The volume profile suggests confirmation rather than divergence, supporting the view that the rally is genuine and not a short-term pump.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $3.146 to $3.283, the price has now moved past the 61.8% level and is approaching the 78.6% extension. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level of the broader move from $3.117 to $3.352 is around $3.23, which the price has already passed. The next key Fibonacci level to watch is the 78.6% retracement at ~$3.32.

Looking ahead, Toncoin appears to be in a strong short-term bullish phase, supported by volume, momentum, and structure. A close above $3.35 could extend the rally further, while a pullback to the $3.28–$3.30 range may offer a consolidation opportunity. Investors should remain cautious of overbought conditions and potential profit-taking, particularly if the RSI fails to remain above 60. As always, market sentiment can shift rapidly in crypto, and position management remains key.