Toncoin Market Overview

• Toncoin traded in a tight range before breaking lower, with key support at 3.15–3.17.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 3.19–3.17 as selling pressure increased.
• Volatility expanded in the final 4 hours, with volume surging to over 400k as price rose to 3.24.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, suggesting a potential near-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands constricted earlier, followed by a sharp price rejection at 3.25.

Market Overview

Toncoin (TONUSDT) opened at 3.261 on 2025-08-05 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 3.299 and a low of 3.144 before closing at 3.175 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over 24 hours was 11.49 million, with a notional turnover of $36.76 million, showing strong liquidity and volatility.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a strong bearish reversal around 3.19–3.17, marked by a large engulfing candle. Key support levels appeared at 3.15–3.17 and 3.13–3.15, with resistance at 3.20 and 3.24–3.25. A notable doji formed near 3.175, signaling indecision following the sell-off.

Moving Averages

The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart acted as dynamic resistance, while the 20-period line dipped below it, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA lines remained tightly grouped, suggesting a flat to consolidating trend over the longer term.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative early in the 24-hour period, with bearish divergence developing between price and momentum. RSI dropped to oversold territory below 30, hinting at potential near-term buying interest. However, RSI failed to confirm a strong bounce, indicating mixed sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted early, with Bollinger Bands tightening before a sharp price break to the downside. By the final 4 hours, price traded outside the lower band, suggesting heightened bearish momentum and a potential for a short-term bounce if it retests the 3.15–3.17 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 400k during the final 15-minute period as Toncoin rallied from 3.17 to 3.241. Turnover confirmed the strength of the move, though divergence was noted earlier when volume declined alongside a price dip near 3.15.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute swing from 3.299 to 3.144 highlighted key retracement levels at 3.25 (61.8%), 3.22 (50%), and 3.20 (38.2%). Price tested the 61.8% level before rejecting it, suggesting a potential retest of the 3.15–3.17 support in the coming hours.

With RSI showing oversold conditions and a bearish structure in place, Toncoin may see a short-term bounce but remains under pressure near key support. Investors should watch for a break below 3.15 and confirmatory volume to assess the likelihood of further downside. As always, sudden macroeconomic events or network developments could trigger unexpected volatility.