Toncoin Faces 38.59% Drop in Active Addresses Amid Bullish Triangle Pattern

Toncoin has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating potential volatility as the price approaches the $3.51 resistance level. The price has been compressing between converging support and resistance trendlines, with immediate resistance levels at $3.51 and $4.12, and support near $2.93. This narrowing price range suggests that a decisive move could occur soon, with bulls aiming to push beyond the resistance trendline to spark momentum toward higher targets. However, failure to break out could reinforce the broader downtrend visible on higher timeframes.

Market behavior in the spot arena reveals growing buy-side pressure, with aggressive buyers lifting offers rather than waiting passively. This buyer aggression could exhaust sell walls and trigger a breakout. However, the breakout remains unconfirmed, and traders will likely seek confluence with volume surges or candle structure above $3.51 before acting confidently on long setups.

On-chain data shows that 68.32% of Toncoin holders are currently out of the money, while only 18.40% remain profitable. This distribution creates potential headwinds, as many holders might sell into any rally to recover losses. However, it also presents an opportunity, as demand absorbing this selling pressure could lead to a supply squeeze. Therefore, the current structure becomes a test of whether accumulation can overpower latent exit liquidity.

Fundamental user activity has slumped, with daily active addresses falling 38.59% and new addresses dropping 53.13% over the last 7 days. This sharp contraction reflects weakened short-term engagement with the network. Historically, active user growth aligns with price rallies, so this pullback may undermine bullish continuation unless reversed. However, it’s also possible that traders are sidelined, waiting for confirmation before re-engaging. A breakout may reawaken activity, especially if accompanied by renewed social interest or fundamental upgrades.

TON’s derivatives volume has surged by 24.84% to $116.63M, reflecting rising speculative interest in the current price range. Surprisingly, open interest has declined slightly by 1.08%, indicating no significant increase in directional commitment. This means that while more trades are happening, many may be short-term or hedged. Traders are likely expecting volatility but are waiting for stronger technical confirmation before building directional exposure. In the past 30 days, investor holdings in Toncoin have increased by 4.01%, even as whales and retail holders reduced their positions by -1.66% and -1.21%, respectively. This shift suggests that mid-tier market participants are positioning for long-term upside during consolidation. Historically, rising investor class holdings have been bullish, as these holders tend to be more patient than retail and less manipulative than whales.

TON’s tightening triangle pattern, paired with spot market buy dominance and investor accumulation, presents a bullish setup. However, bearish pressure from the high number of unprofitable holders and waning user activity may limit upside if not reversed. The next few sessions will be critical: a confirmed breakout above $3.51 could attract sidelined capital and invalidate short-term bearish pressures. Until then, caution remains warranted.