Toncoin's $400M Treasury Initiative Sparks 21% Rally Potential Hinged on $3 Support

Toncoin (TON) stands at a pivotal moment following the announcement of a $400M treasury initiative, a partnership between the TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital. The move has sparked speculation about a potential 21% price rally, contingent on TON’s ability to maintain its $3 support level. Over the past two months, the altcoin has traded within a $2.60–$3.70 range, retracing from a recent high of $3.60 to current levels near $3. Analysts note that a sustained hold above $3 could propel TON toward $3.70, while a breakdown risks reigniting its yearlong downtrend, during which the price has languished below its $6.80 peak [1].

The partnership’s impact is contextualized by mixed on-chain and DeFi metrics. While TON’s total supply remains at 5.135 billion, daily wallet activations have dropped by nearly 50% over ten days, falling to 19,366 from 35,392. This decline contrasts with rising totals for activated wallets and accounts, signaling fragmented user behavior. Meanwhile, NFT and DNS trading volumes climbed to 23.37M and 7M TON, respectively, offering a glimpse of niche ecosystem growth. However, broader adoption remains elusive, with Total Value Locked (TVL) collapsing by over 2.5x since July 2024’s $1.1 billion peak to $408M.

DeFi activity on TON reveals a cautiously optimistic outlook. Stablecoin market capitalization surged 7.85% in the past week, and decentralized exchange (DEX) volume averaged $9M over three days, with TONCO leading in fees paid. Yet, the TVL’s decline and stagnant on-chain adoption underscore structural challenges. A sustained price rebound would require not only capital inflows but also renewed user engagement, which has waned despite institutional interest [1].

The success of the $400M treasury hinges on TON’s capacity to stabilize its price structure. If the altcoin holds above $3, the influx of institutional capital could catalyze a rally toward $3.70. Conversely, a breakdown risks further depreciation, especially with TVL and wallet activations signaling weaker fundamentals. The TON Foundation’s initiative represents a strategic bet on price stability, but its efficacy remains tied to market sentiment and the resolution of underlying liquidity issues.

The broader implications highlight a tension between institutional optimism and organic growth. While the treasury signals a commitment to revitalizing TON’s value proposition, metrics such as TVL and wallet activation rates indicate that capital injections alone may not suffice to reverse bearish trends. The coming weeks will test whether this partnership can galvanize a sustained rally or if entrenched bearishness will prevail.

Source: [1] [Toncoin – $400M Treasury Could Fuel 21% Rally for TON’s Price Only If…] [https://ambcrypto.com/toncoin-400m-treasury-could-fuel-21-rally-for-tons-price-only-if/]