Tom Lee Says Ethereum Looks Ready To Exit Crypto Winter

Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, argued at the 3rd Futu Expo 2026 in Hong Kong that Ethereum is near the bottom of its bear market cycle. He cited a 93% correlation between Ethereum's recent price action and two major S&P 500 selloffs in 1987 and 2011. These historical analogs suggest a potential reversal is near.

Ethereum's on-chain realized price currently sits at $2,241, indicating a 22% discount to its average acquisition cost. This level is historically associated with market exhaustion and trend reversals. Lee emphasized that Ethereum does not need new macroeconomic narratives to stabilize, just a move toward the pain threshold seen in past cycles.

BitMine Immersion Technologies accelerated its Ethereum purchases last week, acquiring 60,999 ETH to bring its total holdings to 4.59 million, or 3.81% of the circulating supply. Tom Lee attributed the move to the market nearing the end of a 'mini-crypto winter,' with Ethereum outperforming the S&P 500 during recent geopolitical tensions.

Why Did This Happen?

Tom DeMark, a BitMine advisor, identified a strong resemblance between Ethereum's current price pattern and the 1987 and 2011 S&P 500 selloffs. If the 1987 analogy holds, Ethereum may have bottomed on March 7. If the 2011 comparison applies, the bottom could be forming now. Either way, Lee concludes the crypto winter is ending.

The realized price metric is another key factor. It tracks the average cost of Ethereum based on blockchain activity, revealing how deeply underwater most holders are. Historical patterns show Ethereum often reversed its trend when this metric hit a 20–30% discount. Currently at 22%, the market appears to be at a level that historically marked the start of a recovery.

How Did Markets React?

BitMine's accelerated ETH accumulation reflects growing optimism about Ethereum's near-term prospects. The company is acquiring ETH directly from the Ethereum Foundation, avoiding open market sales to support its staking operations. This strategy signals confidence in Ethereum's price stability.

Technical indicators like the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator show a short-term bullish bias for Ethereum. Price resistance is seen at $2,380, with analysts monitoring whether Ethereum can break through this level to confirm a broader recovery.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Tom Lee stressed that Ethereum does not need macroeconomic improvements or new narratives to stabilize. Investors are now watching whether the 22% discount level can hold as a threshold for a trend reversal. If Ethereum continues to trade near this level without breaking lower, it could confirm the pattern seen in past cycles.

Analysts are also monitoring broader market conditions. Rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions have pushed investors toward growth assets like crypto and software stocks. Ethereum's ability to outperform the S&P 500 during these events has added to its appeal.

The next key test for Ethereum will be how it reacts to macroeconomic developments, particularly in the energy and inflation markets. If the trend holds, Ethereum could see a broader bullish move, supported by both historical analogs and on-chain metrics.