Tom Cruise, Superman and 'Avatar' hold keys to 2025 box office

The year 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal one for the cinema industry, with a lineup of blockbuster films that could either revitalize or further strain the sector. At the forefront of this cinematic renaissance are Tom Cruise's potential swan song in the "Mission: Impossible" franchise, a new Superman movie directed by James Gunn, and the highly anticipated third installment of James Cameron's "Avatar" series. These films are not just entertainment spectacles; they are the keys to unlocking the box office potential of 2025 and beyond.

The cinema industry has been on a rollercoaster ride since the COVID-19 pandemic. Box office receipts in the United States and Canada totaled $8.6 billion last year, a 25% drop from the pre-pandemic heights of $11.4 billion in 2019. The industry was further disrupted by the Hollywood writers and actors strike in 2023, which highlighted the fragility of the filmmaking ecosystem. Tim Richards, founder and CEO of Europe's Vue Cinemas, noted that the complex matrix of filmmaking, where everyone wants the best talent and the best actors and the best sets, it takes a long time to get that running again. "2025 is going to feel the tail end of that," he said.

"Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning," set to debut over the U.S. Memorial Day weekend in May, is poised to be a major draw. Tom Cruise's final appearance in the long-running action franchise is a significant event for fans and could drive substantial box office revenue. The film's release coincides with Walt Disney's live-action version of the animated classic "Lilo & Stitch," adding to the Memorial Day weekend's cinematic allure.

In July, Warner Bros will release its new "Superman" movie, directed by James Gunn and starring David Corenswet. This reboot of the Superman franchise within the new DC universe is expected to attract a large audience, given Gunn's storytelling prowess and the enduring popularity of the Man of Steel. The film's success could potentially break into the top three or even replace "Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice" as the highest-grossing Superman movie to date.

The real game-changer, however, is "Avatar: Fire and Ash," the third film in James Cameron's "Avatar" series. The first "Avatar" is the highest-grossing movie of all time, earning an estimated $2.92 billion at the box office worldwide. The sequel, "Avatar: The Way of Water," grossed $2.32 billion globally, making it the most successful movie in the post-Covid era. Tim Richards believes that the new "Avatar" film could be a tipping point for the cinema industry, potentially kicking off an extraordinary three to five years for cinemas.

The success of these high-profile releases could lead to increased box office receipts and a boost in cinema attendance, benefiting cinema operators and related industries. Shawn Robbins, Director of Movie Analytics at Fandango, projected that 2025 could end with a slight increase in domestic box office receipts, "maybe flirting with $9 billion," due in part to the release of these films. However, the industry must also contend with the potential for further disruptions, such as strikes or pandemics, that could impact the performance of these films and the cinema industry as a whole.

In conclusion, the upcoming releases of "Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning," the new "Superman" movie, and "Avatar: Fire and Ash" present both opportunities and risks for the cinema industry. While these films have the potential to revitalize the box office and drive cinema attendance, the industry must also navigate the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead. The keys to 2025's box office success are in the hands of these cinematic powerhouses, and their performance will shape the future of the cinema industry for years to come.