Toll Brothers 5.77 Rise Drives 400M Volume Ranking 251 Amid 2026 Revenue Outlook Divergence

Toll Brothers (TOL) surged 5.77% on August 22, 2025, with a trading volume of $400 million, a 75.05% increase from the prior day, ranking 251st in market activity. The stock’s performance followed the release of third-quarter results, which showed revenues of $2.9 billion, exceeding estimates by 3.1%, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of $3.73, up 2.6% from forecasts. Analysts have maintained their 2026 revenue and EPS projections at $10.8 billion and $14.16, respectively, aligning with prior expectations. Despite the strong earnings, forecasts indicate a projected 0.5% annualized revenue decline by year-end 2026, contrasting with an industry average of 3.7% annual growth. The consensus price target remains unchanged at $147, with a wide range of analyst estimates from $92 to $183, reflecting divergent views on the company’s outlook.

Analysts have not revised their earnings or revenue forecasts following the results, suggesting the company met expectations. However, the projected revenue contraction positions Toll Brothers to underperform its sector peers, which are forecast to grow revenue at a faster rate. The lack of significant changes to analyst estimates or price targets implies stability in perceived intrinsic value, though long-term investors may need to monitor broader industry trends. Technical indicators, including an RSI near overbought levels and a bullish MACD crossover, highlight short-term momentum but caution against overextended positions.

Backtest results for TOL’s performance after a 6% intraday surge showed a 52.96% win rate over three days, 57.32% over ten days, and 62.31% over 30 days, with a maximum return of 6.45% recorded on day 59. This suggests continued positive momentum in the immediate aftermath of significant price moves.