Toko Token/Tether Market Overview (2025-11-05)

Summary
• Price declined from 0.1084 to 0.1083, ending near session lows, with key support at 0.1071.
• Volume spiked at 382568.2 during a sharp decline, signaling increased bearish pressure.
• RSI moved toward oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term reversal.

Toko Token/Tether (TKOUSDT) traded between 0.1038 and 0.1098 over the last 24 hours, opening at 0.1084 on 2025-11-04 at 170000 ET and closing at 0.1083 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached 4,166,210 units, with notional turnover exceeding $468,781, based on the TKOUSDT price range.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed bearish pressure, with a large bearish candle forming after a brief rally. A key support level appeared near 0.1071, where the price paused during a strong downward move. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred during a 15-minute session, suggesting continued selling pressure. No strong bullish candlestick formations emerged over the 24-hour period, with the price consistently closing near lows.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average appears to be acting as a resistance level. The 200-period moving average is well below the current price, indicating no long-term overbought conditions.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the bearish phase, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions that could lead to a short-term bounce. However, RSI did not show a strong reversal signal, suggesting further consolidation or a bearish continuation could follow.

Bollinger Bands

Price action showed volatility expansion, with the bands widening during the sharp decline. The price briefly touched the lower band, indicating oversold conditions but without a strong rebound. This suggests continued bearish bias until the price breaks above the upper band or the bands contract again.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 184500 and 214500 ET timeframes, coinciding with sharp declines. This volume confirmed bearish price action. Notional turnover also spiked during the same periods, indicating increased selling pressure. Divergence between price and volume was not observed; both reinforced the bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the recent 15-minute swing, the price found temporary support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level appears to be acting as a key resistance. The price is likely to retest these levels before finding a new directional bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy assumes a breakout is confirmed when today’s close exceeds the highest close of the previous 50 trading days. Entry is triggered at the next day’s open, and exit is at the next day’s close, with a one-day holding period. This simple approach can be applied to historical TKOUSDT data to evaluate its effectiveness during recent bearish and bullish cycles. Traders may consider testing this strategy to assess its robustness under varying market conditions, particularly when volatility and volume patterns align with breakout signals.