Toko Token Falls Below 1080.0 After Failed 1110.0 Breakout

Summary
• Price tested key resistance at 1110.0 but retreated, forming bearish divergences in volume and RSI.
• Volatility expanded between 1060–1110, with 20-period SMA acting as a dynamic support during the afternoon session.
• Momentum softened in the final 4 hours, with RSI hovering near 50 and MACD narrowing, signaling possible consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the overnight rally, followed by a contraction before a sharp selloff at 07:15 ET.
• 50-period MA at ~1085.0 confirmed its role as a psychological pivot, with strong volume during its retests.

The Toko Token/Rupiah (TKOIDR) pair opened at 1080.84, reaching a high of 1110.0 before closing at 1080.48 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 234,444.2 with a notional turnover of 250,869,180.06.

Structure & Formations

Price encountered significant resistance near 1110.0, where a bearish engulfing pattern formed after a false break. Key support levels emerged at 1083.0 and 1075.0, with the 50-period MA (~1085.0) holding firm as a critical reference. A large bearish candle at 07:15 ET confirmed a breakdown in sentiment, with price falling below the 1080.0 psychological level.

Moving Averages

The 20-period MA acted as a temporary support in the afternoon, but bearish momentum caused price to close below the 50-period MA. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is trending upward but has yet to align with the 100/200-period MAs, suggesting a potential period of consolidation or a short-term correction.

Momentum & Volatility

RSI peaked near overbought levels at 1110.0 before declining into neutral territory, signaling waning upward momentum. MACD showed a narrowing histogram, hinting at a potential reversal or pullback. Bollinger Bands expanded during the overnight high and later contracted before the selloff, indicating a period of volatility followed by a potential exhaustion phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 07:15–08:00 ET window as price fell sharply below key support, confirming bearish momentum. Notional turnover spiked alongside the breakdown, validating the move. However, volume during the consolidation phase (after 10:00 ET) was lower, suggesting a potential lull in directional bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent swing high of 1110.0 and low of 1062.98 produced a 61.8% retrace at ~1086.0, where price stalled. The 38.2% retrace (~1097.0) also failed to hold during the afternoon session, pointing to continued bearish bias until a retest of 1085.0.

Price may find support near 1075.0 and resistance at 1085.0 in the next 24 hours. However, caution is warranted as overextended RSI and divergent volume patterns could signal a potential reversal or sideways consolidation.