Today's Trade: CPE's Earnings and the Immediate Setup for Netflix, UAL, GE, and Intel

The tactical window for this week is defined by a cluster of earnings reports. The immediate investment thesis for each company hinges on whether results beat or miss consensus and, more importantly, whether management guidance shifts the near-term trajectory. Here are the exact events and key estimates:

• Netflix (NFLX): Reports Wednesday, January 21, 2026, after U.S. market close. The consensus expects revenue of $11.97 billion and EPS of $0.55. The focus is on sustaining Q3 momentum into year-end, particularly on monetization and engagement beyond subscriber counts.
• United Airlines (UAL): Reports Tuesday, January 20, 2026, after market close. The consensus estimates are $3.05 per share in EPS and $15.44 billion in revenue. The key will be confirming stable domestic demand and navigating persistent inflation and geopolitical headwinds.
• Intel (INTC): Reports Thursday, January 22, 2026, after market close. The exact consensus figures are not in the evidence, but the event is confirmed for the same day as GE. The market will watch for execution updates on its turnaround plan.
• GE Aerospace (GE): Reports Thursday, January 22, 2026, before market open. The consensus expects $1.40 EPS and $11.273 billion in revenue. The company has already guided for full-year 2025 EPS of $6.00–6.20, so the quarterly results will be judged against that framework.

This sequence sets up a clear, near-term catalyst calendar where price action will be dictated by the binary outcome of each report against established expectations.

The Setup: What to Watch for Each Stock

For each stock, the immediate post-earnings move will hinge on a narrow set of metrics that signal whether the report confirms the current trend or reveals a fundamental shift. The market will price in the binary outcome against consensus.

For Callon Petroleum (CPE), the critical watchpoints are cash flow generation and management's commentary on the Permian basin. The company's core business is tied to the health of its oil and gas operations, and cash flow provides the clearest read on operational profitability. Investors will scrutinize whether the company is generating sufficient cash to fund its capital program and return value. More broadly, management's outlook on the Permian-a key growth region-will determine if the asset base is being optimized for current commodity prices or if longer-term pressures are emerging.

United Airlines (UAL) presents a more nuanced setup. The stock has a history of beating estimates, with an average beat of 8.8% over the last four quarters. The immediate risk is that this streak ends, but the more telling data point is the company's own guidance. United has set a Q4 EPS range of $3.00 to $3.50, which is notably wider than the analyst consensus of $2.97. A result that lands at the top of this range would signal strong operational execution and demand resilience, potentially validating the recent price target hikes. A miss, however, would highlight vulnerabilities in navigating cost inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

For Intel (INTC), the focus shifts from top-line numbers to management's narrative on its turnaround. The market will dissect commentary on the foundry business for signs of progress or setbacks, as well as the sustainability of gross margins. The key question is whether the company is executing on its plan to regain market share and improve profitability, or if it is merely managing through a difficult period. The guidance for the full year will be scrutinized for any shifts in capital expenditure plans or competitive assumptions.

For GE Aerospace (GE), the immediate risk is a stumble in the final quarter. The consensus expects $1.40 EPS for the quarter. Given that the company has already guided for a full-year EPS of $6.00–6.20, a miss here would directly threaten that outlook. On the flip side, a beat would reinforce the stability of its core commercial engine business and the visibility from its aftermarket backlog, which includes the recent Delta order. The aftermarket segment provides a predictable revenue stream, and any commentary on its health will be key.

Finally, the full-year outlook for each of these stocks will depend on the execution of their strategic priorities. For Netflix, the focus is on monetization beyond subscriber growth and content performance. For United, demand trends and fuel costs will remain central. Intel must demonstrate tangible progress in its turnaround, and GE Aerospace must prove its commercial engine orders and aftermarket performance are on track.

The Trade: Immediate Risk/Reward and Potential Mispricing

The immediate risk/reward for each stock hinges on the binary outcome of the earnings call: a beat with reaffirmed guidance offers a tactical entry, while a miss or cut guidance triggers a swift reversal. The primary catalyst for all four is management commentary; a shift in tone or a reduction in forward-looking statements could instantly invalidate any pre-earnings optimism.

For Netflix, the key risk is conservative full-year 2026 guidance or silence on the status of the Warner Bros. Discovery deal. The stock has already priced in a modest beat, with the consensus expecting revenue of $11.97 billion and EPS of $0.55 for Q4. The real move will come from the call. If management provides a full-year 2026 outlook that is below Street expectations, or if they downplay the potential upside from the WBD deal amid ongoing legal disputes, the recent 5% rally could unwind. Conversely, a strong ad revenue update or a reaffirmed international growth trajectory could validate the average price target of $124.80, which implies significant upside.

United Airlines presents a clearer immediate catalyst. The company has set a Q4 EPS range of $3.00 to $3.50, which has a midpoint above the analyst consensus of $2.97. A result that lands at the top of this range would signal exceptional execution and demand resilience, likely reinforcing the recent price target hikes. The watchlist here is simple: hit the top of the guidance range, and the stock has room to run. Miss the consensus, however, and the vulnerability to cost inflation and geopolitical headwinds becomes the dominant narrative.

For Intel and GE Aerospace, the setup is about confirming stability. Intel must show progress on its turnaround plan, with management's commentary on foundry margins and gross profitability being more critical than the quarterly numbers themselves. GE Aerospace, with its full-year EPS guidance of $6.00–6.20, cannot afford a stumble. A miss on its $1.40 EPS quarterly target would directly threaten that annual outlook, making any negative commentary on its aftermarket backlog or commercial engine orders a major red flag.

The bottom line is that for all four stocks, the primary risk is a guidance cut or a shift to a more cautious tone during the earnings calls. These events have already been priced in to some extent, creating a potential mispricing if results meet or exceed expectations. The trade is to watch for that confirmation signal.