Toast Stock Surges 5.44% As Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Reversal

Introduction
Toast (TOST) has demonstrated notable bullish momentum recently, closing at $37.79 with a 5.44% gain on October 14, 2025, marking the second consecutive day of gains and an 8.03% advance over this period. This analysis employs multiple technical frameworks to assess the stock’s trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
The October 10 session formed a Hammer pattern (low: $34.57, close: $34.98), signaling potential reversal after a sharp 5.10% decline. Subsequent bullish candles validated this, with October 14’s strong close near the day’s high ($38.24) reinforcing buyer conviction. Immediate resistance lies at $38.24 (October 14 high), while support is established at $34.96–$34.57, aligning with the October 10 low.
Moving Average Theory
Toast trades below all major moving averages, indicating persistent bearish pressure:
- 50-day MA: $38.70 (resistance)
- 100-day MA: $40.15 (major resistance)
- 200-day MA: $38.08 (dynamic resistance)
The recent rebound from $34.57 suggests short-term recovery potential, but sustained upside requires clearing the 50/200-day MAs.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover emerging, with the histogram flipping positive on October 14, hinting at waning bearish momentum. The KDJ (9,3,3) reflects oversold recovery: %K (26.1) crossed above %D (22.8) on October 13, accelerating upward. While not yet overbought (both <70), this signals strengthening short-term momentum.
Bollinger Bands
Price rebounded sharply from the lower band ($34.57 on October 10), confirming support. The bands contracted notably preceding this move (Bandwidth: 11% → 9%), suggesting a volatility breakout. Current price near the middle band ($37.20) may face interim resistance at the upper band ($39.80). Band expansion supports continuation potential.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 51.8% to 10.96M shares during the October 14 rally, confirming buyer conviction. This contrasts with the October 10 decline (-5.10%), which occurred on elevated volume (9.71M), indicating capitulation. The bullish follow-through with expanding volume strengthens the reversal case.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (approximately 62.4) rebounded from oversold territory (29.8 on October 10) but remains below the overbought threshold (70). This recovery trajectory suggests bullish momentum accumulation, though the neutrality of the current reading implies room for further gains before becoming overextended.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing from the August 4 peak ($49.66) to the November 7 trough ($32.67):
- 38.2% level: $38.08 (resistance)
- 50% level: $41.16 (key resistance)
Price tested the 23.6% retracement ($37.05) before the recent rally. The confluence of the 38.2% Fib level ($38.08) and the 200-day MA ($38.08) creates a critical resistance zone. A break above this area may target $41.16.
Probable Conclusions
Confluence points suggest a pivotal test at $38.08–38.24 (resistance from Fib, 200-day MA, and recent high). Bullish volume confirmation, MACD/KDJ momentum alignment, and candlestick reversal patterns support upside potential. However, failure to breach $38.24 may trigger consolidation near $36.00–$36.70 support. Divergences are minimal, though RSI’s neutral stance may precede overbought conditions if the rally extends above $38.24. The setup leans bullish short-term, contingent on clearing key resistance with sustained volume.