Toast Stock Surges 5.14% In Two Days As Technicals Flash Bullish Signals

Toast (TOST) recorded a 3.28% gain on 2025-07-17, closing at $46.62 and marking its second consecutive advance with a cumulative 5.14% rise over two sessions. This analysis employs technical frameworks to evaluate the stock’s trajectory, identifying key patterns, momentum signals, and critical price levels based on historical data spanning approximately one year.
Candlestick Theory
The recent session formed a robust bullish candle with a high-low range of $45.05–$47.46, closing near the upper boundary. This follows a hammer pattern on 2025-07-15 (low: $44.34), which stabilized prices after a pullback from the $47.46 resistance. Key support resides at $43.63–$44.34, the consolidation zone from mid-July, while resistance is pronounced at $47.46. A sustained breach above this resistance may trigger bullish continuation, whereas failure could signal profit-taking near this psychological barrier.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($43.20 approximated) and 100-day moving average ($40.80 approximated) both slope upward, reflecting strengthening intermediate-term momentum. The current price trades 7.9% above the 50-day MA, confirming the bullish posture. Notably, the 50-day MA crossed above the 100-day MA in early June 2025, generating a Golden Cross that typically reinforces bullish bias. Absence of death crosses across timeframes underscores consistent upward pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) likely registers a bullish crossover, with the histogram expanding positively—suggesting accelerating upward momentum. KDJ shows the %K line (87 approximated) crossing above %D in overbought territory (>80), indicating strong near-term buying impetus but flagging potential exhaustion. While both oscillators align in their bullish signals, the KDJ’s overbought reading advises caution against chasing the rally at current levels. No bearish divergence is evident between price highs and oscillator peaks.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply as prices pierced the upper Bollinger Band ($46.20 approximated) on 2025-07-17, coinciding with the 5.14% two-day surge. Bandwidth contraction preceded this move, signaling a volatility squeeze that typically precedes directional breaks. The close above the upper band may indicate short-term overextension, but sustained trading in the upper third of the bands reinforces bullish control. Immediate support aligns with the 20-day moving average (middle band) near $44.30.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged to 12.28 million shares on 2025-07-17—double the 30-day average—validating the bullish breakout with institutional participation. The preceding consolidation near $44.00 occurred on diminishing volume, reflecting limited sell pressure during pullbacks. However, the 2025-06-25 sell-off (-7.10%) featured amplified volume (13.32 million shares), establishing $41.50 as a high-volume support node. Current volume confirms bullish conviction, though sustainability requires persistent above-average activity.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (68 approximated) approaches overbought territory but remains below the 70 threshold. Strength is underpinned by higher lows in RSI during June–July pullbacks, contradicting bearish divergence risks. Momentum is robust but not extreme, with RSI consistently holding above 50 since May 2025. The indicator’s current position suggests room for further upside before technical exhaustion, particularly if volume persists.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the upswing from the 2024-08-07 low of $22.10 to the 2025-07-17 high of $47.46 reveals critical thresholds. The 23.6% retracement ($39.70) supported the 2025-06-25 reversal, aligning with the 100-day MA. The 38.2% level ($36.30) intersects with the April–May 2025 consolidation, creating a major support confluence. Crucially, the recent breakout occurred near the 0% extension, signaling trend resumption. These levels provide strategic reference points for profit-taking or accumulation.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence is evident between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ($36.30), the 100-day moving average, and the April 2025 resistance break—solidifying this zone as a primary support cluster. The moving average suite (50/100-day) and MACD jointly endorse the bullish structure, while volume confirms breakout validity. No material divergence exists among core indicators, though Bollinger Band penetration and KDJ overbought conditions imply near-term consolidation risk below $47.46 resistance. Traders should monitor the $44.30–$45.05 support band for trend validation.