Toast Shares Surge 3.96% on Bullish Engulfing Pattern and Golden Cross as Price Nears Key 61.8% Fibonacci Level

Toast (TOST) closed the most recent session with a 3.96% increase, driven by a bullish candlestick pattern characterized by a sharp rebound from a recent low of $33.6 to a high of $35.22. This suggests potential short-term buying momentum, though the preceding session’s 1.54% decline indicates volatility. Key support levels may form around $33.6–$33.8, while resistance could emerge at $34.8–$35.22. The recent price action hints at a possible bullish reversal from a descending trend, with the 200-day moving average (calculated from the provided data) likely acting as a critical psychological threshold.
Candlestick Theory
The recent candlestick pattern—a strong white candle following a bearish session—signals a potential reversal, especially if the close nears the session’s high. The preceding days show a series of mixed signals, including a 4.14% surge on 2025-11-21 followed by a 2.34% drop. This creates a "bullish engulfing" pattern at the $33.95–$34.19 range, suggesting buyers may be stepping in after a consolidation phase. Key support levels at $33.6–$33.8 and resistance at $34.8–$35.22 align with recent swing points, with the 50-day moving average (estimated near $34.5) acting as a dynamic support/resistance zone.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (DMA) appears to have crossed above the 200-day DMA recently, indicating a potential medium-term bullish trend. The 100-day DMA is likely consolidating within the $34.0–$34.5 range, suggesting a balance between short-term momentum and long-term structure. Price currently sits above the 50-day DMA, reinforcing the idea of a continuation pattern, while the 200-day DMA at $33.2–$33.4 acts as a critical support level. A break above $35.22 could trigger a retest of the $35.8–$36.0 resistance cluster from mid-November.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD line has turned positive, crossing above the signal line with a narrowing histogram, indicating waning bearish momentum. The KDJ (Stochastic) oscillator shows the %K line rising above %D, suggesting overbought conditions (around 80+), which may warn of a near-term pullback. However, the RSI (calculated separately) at 68–70 suggests the market is approaching overbought territory, with potential for a correction unless volume sustains the rally. Divergence between the MACD and KDJ may indicate mixed signals: while momentum is bullish, overbought levels could trigger profit-taking.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded recently, with the upper band reaching $35.22 and the lower band near $33.6. Price is currently near the upper band, indicating a potential overbought condition. A contraction in the bands could precede a breakout or breakdown, but the recent widening suggests continued volatility. The mid-band (20-day SMA) at $34.5–$34.7 acts as a pivot, with a sustained close above it likely to trigger further gains toward $35.8.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged to $418 million on the 3.96% rally, validating the bullish move. However, the preceding days showed declining volume during the 1.54% drop, suggesting weak bearish conviction. A continuation of high volume with price consolidation could confirm a breakout, while declining volume during a rally might signal a false move. The recent surge in volume aligns with the price rebound, indicating strong buyer participation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period RSI has approached 70, indicating overbought conditions. This suggests a potential pullback, though the RSI’s divergence from price (e.g., a lower high in RSI despite a higher price high) could signal a bearish reversal. A retest of the 50–60 RSI range would be critical for confirming sustainability.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels between the October high of $49.3 and the November low of $33.0, the current price near $35.17 aligns with the 61.8% retracement level ($34.8–$35.2). This level acts as a key support/resistance zone, with a break above it potentially targeting the 50% retracement level at $37.0–$37.5. A failure to hold here could see a retest of the 78.6% level at $33.2–$33.5.

Confluence of indicators suggests that Toast is in a short-term bullish phase, supported by a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, a golden cross in moving averages, and strong volume. However, overbought RSI and KDJ levels warn of a potential pullback. The 61.8% Fibonacci and 50-day DMA provide critical support/resistance, with divergence between MACD and RSI indicating caution. Traders should monitor volume sustainability and whether price holds above $34.5–$34.7 to confirm the continuation of the uptrend.