Toast's 45% Volume Drop Pushes It to 375th in Market Activity Amid Mixed Expansion Gains

On August 21, 2025, Toast (TOST) rose 0.45% with a trading volume of $230 million, a 45.16% decline from the prior day, ranking it 375th in market activity. The stock’s performance reflects mixed signals from its business developments, including growth in core markets and strategic expansion initiatives.

Toast reported a significant 24% year-over-year increase in total locations, reaching 148,000 by Q2 2025, driven by 8,500 net new locations added during the period. The company is deepening its presence in U.S. small and medium restaurant markets, with strong traction in metro areas where penetration exceeds 30%. Expansion into Australia marks its fourth international market, though challenges such as regional complexities and macroeconomic uncertainties, including trade tensions and potential cost inflation, remain risks.

Competitive pressures persist as rivals like Block’s Square and Lightspeed continue to enhance their offerings. Block’s recent AI-driven Square AI and Lightspeed’s AI-powered hospitality tools highlight intensifying innovation in the sector. Toast’s focus on enterprise, international, and food & beverage retail segments has pushed live locations beyond 10,000, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) on track to surpass $100 million by year-end. However, rising acquisition costs or slower net additions could impact growth momentum.

The strategy of buying the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding them for one day from 2022 to 2025 yielded a 1.98% average 1-day return, with a total return of 7.61% over 365 days. The approach achieved a Sharpe ratio of 0.94, indicating favorable risk-adjusted returns, but experienced a maximum drawdown of -29.16%, underscoring its vulnerability during market downturns.