TMC Surges 10.58% on Regulatory Breakthrough and Deep-Sea Mining Optimism: What's Next for The Metals Company?

Summary
• TMC the metals (TMC) surges 10.58% to $7.575, hitting an intraday high of $7.71
• Copper prices hit record highs, signaling industrial metals strength
• Options volume spikes with 339 contracts traded for the $7.5 call expiring Dec 19
• Sector leader MP Materials (MP) gains 3.25% as global rare earth demand intensifies

The Metals Company (TMC) is surging on a perfect storm of regulatory progress and deep-sea mining optimism. With the stock trading at a 10.58% gain, the move follows a critical update on U.S. deep-sea mining legislation and a 35% rally in copper prices. The options market is heating up, with the $7.5 call option seeing 339 contracts traded, reflecting bullish sentiment. This surge aligns with a broader sector rally led by MP Materials, as global demand for critical minerals accelerates.

Regulatory Green Light Fuels Deep-Sea Mining Optimism
The 10.58% surge in TMC is directly tied to a breakthrough in U.S. deep-sea mining regulations. Recent developments indicate the White House is prioritizing a domestic framework to bypass the International Seabed Authority (ISA), potentially fast-tracking TMC’s commercial operations by late 2027. This regulatory shift, combined with a 35% year-to-date rise in copper prices, has reignited investor confidence in the company’s ability to monetize its polymetallic nodule reserves. The stock’s intraday high of $7.71 reflects market anticipation of a 2027 revenue milestone, as the company transitions from exploration to production.

Industrial Metals Sector Rally: TMC Leads the Charge
The industrial metals sector is experiencing a broad-based rally, with TMC outperforming peers like MP Materials (MP) and Critical Metals (CRML). MP, the sector leader, is up 3.25% on the day, while CRML trades flat. TMC’s 10.58% gain underscores its unique position in deep-sea mining, a niche within the broader critical minerals boom. The sector’s strength is driven by a 2.3% U.S. GDP growth forecast and a 35% surge in copper prices, which are now at record highs. TMC’s focus on nickel, cobalt, and manganese—key components for EVs and energy storage—positions it to benefit from the global clean energy transition.

Options Playbook: Leveraging TMC’s Volatility with Gamma-Driven Calls
• 200-day MA: $5.08 (below current price)
• RSI: 63.56 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 0.31 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $4.02–$8.45 (current price near upper band)

TMC’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with the 200-day MA acting as a strong support level. The RSI hovering near overbought territory indicates sustained buying pressure, while the MACD’s positive divergence signals strengthening upward momentum. The stock is trading near the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential pullback to the $6.23 30-day MA could present a buying opportunity. For leveraged exposure, consider MP Materials (MP) as a sector proxy, though TMC’s options offer higher gamma and leverage.

Top Options Picks:
1. TMC20251219C7.5
• Call Option, Strike: $7.50, Expiry: 12/19
• IV: 119.54% (high volatility)
• Leverage: 12.61% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.5577 (mid-range sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.04775 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.2780 (high sensitivity to price changes)
• Turnover: 17,313 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($7.575 → $7.95): $0.45/share
• This contract offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bullish bet. The high gamma ensures significant price sensitivity, while the 119.54% IV reflects strong market expectations.

2. TMC20251219C8
• Call Option, Strike: $8.00, Expiry: 12/19
• IV: 121.08% (very high)
• Leverage: 18.91% (high)
• Delta: 0.4232 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.04414 (rapid decay)
• Gamma: 0.2722 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 18,342 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($7.575 → $7.95): $0.00/share
• This option provides aggressive leverage with a 18.91% ratio, suitable for traders expecting a sharp move above $8.00. The high IV and gamma make it ideal for a breakout scenario.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls should target the $8.00 level as a key resistance. A break above this could trigger a gamma-driven rally, with the $8.00 call (TMC20251219C8) offering the highest leverage. For a safer play, the $7.50 call (TMC20251219C7.5) balances risk and reward, with a 5% upside scenario yielding $0.45/share. Watch for a pullback to the $6.23 30-day MA as a potential entry point.

Backtest TMC the metals Stock Performance
The backtest of TMC's performance after a 11% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 44.93%, the 10-Day win rate is 47.93%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.68%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 23.78% over 30 days, suggesting that TMC can deliver significant gains even after the initial surge.

TMC’s 12% Surge: A Catalyst-Driven Breakout with Gamma-Driven Options
TMC’s 10.58% surge is a catalyst-driven breakout fueled by regulatory progress and deep-sea mining optimism. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $11.35, the move reflects a shift in market sentiment toward critical minerals. The options market is pricing in a 119–121% implied volatility range, indicating strong expectations for a 2027 revenue milestone. For traders, the $7.50 and $8.00 call options offer high-gamma plays on a potential breakout. Meanwhile, sector leader MP Materials (MP) is up 3.25%, reinforcing the broader industrial metals rally. Investors should monitor the $8.00 level as a key inflection point—break above it, and TMC20251219C8 could deliver outsized returns.