TMC Soars 11.6% on Regulatory Momentum and Sector Synergy

Summary
• TMC the metals (TMC) surges 11.6% to $7.645, hitting a 52-week high of $7.71
• Sector leader MP Materials (MP) gains 2.71%, signaling EV metals demand
• Options volume spikes 360x on TMC20251219C7.5 call contract

The Metals Company (TMC) is trading at a 11.6% intraday gain, fueled by regulatory optimism in deep-sea mining and sector-wide momentum in critical minerals. With a 52-week high of $7.71 and a 3.39% turnover rate, the stock has surged past key resistance levels. Analysts highlight the White House's potential 2027 commercialization timeline as a catalyst, while sector peers like MP Materials (MP) show mixed performance. This move reflects a broader shift in investor sentiment toward resource plays amid EV battery demand.

Regulatory Momentum Fuels TMC's 11.6% Surge
TMC's explosive 11.6% gain stems from renewed regulatory optimism in deep-sea mining. Recent news highlights the White House's interest in accelerating U.S. deep-sea mining permits, potentially bypassing the International Seabed Authority (ISA) by 2027. This development directly aligns with TMC's exploration rights in the Clarion Clipperton Zone, where polymetallic nodules could supply nickel, cobalt, and manganese for EV batteries. Analysts at HC Wainwright upgraded TMC to 'Buy' with a $7.5 target, citing the company's strategic alignment with U.S. critical minerals policy. The stock's intraday high of $7.71 reflects speculative positioning ahead of potential regulatory clarity.

MP Materials Leads EV Metals Sector Amid TMC's Surge
MP Materials (MP), the sector's largest player by market cap, rose 2.71% to $59.81, outperforming TMC's 11.6% surge. While TMC's rally is driven by speculative regulatory bets, MP's gains reflect steady demand for rare earth elements in EVs and magnets. The EV metals sector, as tracked by the S&P 500 Other Industrial Metals & Mining index, gained 4.53% on the day, outpacing the S&P 500's 0.16%. TMC's 582.59% YTD return contrasts with MP's 283.43% gain, highlighting divergent investor strategies between speculative deep-sea mining plays and established rare earth producers.

Options Playbook: TMC20251219C7.5 and TMC20251226C7 Lead the Charge
• MACD: 0.311 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.107, Histogram: 0.204
• RSI: 63.56 (neutral to overbought)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $8.45, Middle $6.23, Lower $4.02
• 200-day MA: $5.08 (well above)

TMC's technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum. The stock is trading above its 200-day MA and within the upper Bollinger Band, with RSI approaching overbought territory. Key support at $5.12 (30D) and resistance at $8.45 (upper band) define the near-term range. Aggressive bulls may consider the TMC20251219C7.5 call option (strike $7.5, 12/19 expiry), which offers a 12.36% leverage ratio and 111.55% implied volatility. This contract has a delta of 0.586, indicating moderate sensitivity to price moves, and a theta of -0.0468, reflecting rapid time decay. A 5% upside to $7.98 would yield a 21.4% payoff (max(0, 7.98 - 7.5) = $0.48).

For a longer-term play, the TMC20251226C7 call (strike $7, 12/26 expiry) stands out with a 9.46% leverage ratio and 61.86% implied volatility. Its delta of 0.782 suggests high sensitivity to price swings, while theta of -0.0225 indicates slower decay. A 5% move to $7.98 would generate a 42.6% payoff (max(0, 7.98 - 7) = $0.98). Both options benefit from high turnover (16,281 and 8,432 shares) and gamma values above 0.29, amplifying gains in a rising market. Aggressive bulls should target a $7.50 support break for a potential $8.45 target.

Backtest TMC the metals Stock Performance
The backtest of TMC's performance after a 12% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 44.93%, the 10-Day win rate is 47.93%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.68%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 23.78% over 30 days, suggesting that TMC can deliver significant gains even after the initial surge.

TMC's Regulatory Breakthrough: A High-Volatility Play with Sector Synergy
TMC's 11.6% surge underscores the market's appetite for regulatory-driven plays in deep-sea mining. With the White House's 2027 commercialization timeline and sector peers like MP Materials (MP) gaining 2.71%, the EV metals sector remains a focal point. Investors should monitor the $7.50 support level and MP's leadership in the $59.81 range. For those seeking leverage, the TMC20251219C7.5 call offers a high-risk, high-reward setup. Watch for a $7.50 breakdown or regulatory updates to confirm the trade's sustainability.