TMC Plummets 8.76% Amid Deep-Sea Mining Uncertainty and Earnings Shockwaves

Summary
• TMC the metals (TMC) plunges to $6.35, down 8.76% from $6.96, hitting a 52-week low of $0.721
• Intraday range narrows to $6.26–$6.60, signaling extreme volatility amid regulatory and operational headwinds
• Options chain surges with 20 contracts trading at 142%–177% implied volatility, reflecting heightened bearish sentiment
• Deutsche Bank’s gold forecast upgrade and Trump’s diplomatic moves fail to offset TMC’s sector-specific struggles

The Metals Company (TMC) is in freefall as a 667% earnings surprise and regulatory setbacks collide with deep-sea mining skepticism. With the stock trading 8.76% below its previous close and options volatility spiking, investors are scrambling to parse whether this is a short-term correction or a structural collapse in the critical minerals narrative.

Regulatory Delays and Earnings Shock Undermine Deep-Sea Mining Hype
TMC’s 8.76% intraday drop stems from a confluence of factors: a 667% earnings surprise (actual losses of $0.46/share vs. $0.06 estimate), regulatory delays in U.S. deep-sea mining permits, and waning investor confidence in its $23.6B NPV studies. The stock’s collapse follows a 31.9% after-hours surge earlier in the week, exposing the fragility of its speculative rally. Analysts now question whether TMC’s $7.50 price target is achievable given its $184.52M Q3 loss and lack of revenue. The recent Deutsche Bank gold forecast upgrade (to $4,450/oz) has failed to offset sector-specific risks, including environmental opposition and operational inefficiencies.

Industrial Metals Sector Mixed as Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Rises 0.35%
While TMC plummets, the broader industrial metals sector shows resilience. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), a sector leader, trades up 0.34899953% on news of a $100B U.S. EXIM critical minerals investment. However, TMC’s deep-sea mining focus isolates it from traditional miners like Anglo American and Glencore, which benefit from copper and cobalt demand. TMC’s unique exposure to regulatory and environmental risks—coupled with its lack of revenue—creates a divergent trajectory from peers. The sector’s mixed performance underscores TMC’s precarious position as a speculative play rather than a core industrial asset.

Options Volatility and Technicals Signal High-Risk, High-Reward Setup
• 200-day MA: $4.868 (well below current price)
• RSI: 66.27 (neutral but trending downward)
• MACD: -0.29 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $4.53–$6.87 (price near lower band)

TMC’s technicals suggest a short-term bounce near $5.16–$5.23 (30D support) but a bearish bias below $6.50. The options chain offers two high-leverage plays:

1. TMC20251205P6.5 (Put Option)
- Strike: $6.50
- Expiration: 2025-12-05
- IV: 177.32% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage: 10.61%
- Delta: -0.498 (moderate bearish exposure)
- Theta: -0.022 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.302 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $18,777
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.175/share (max profit if TMC drops to $6.03)
- Why it stands out: High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a sharp decline, with liquidity to ensure execution.

2. TMC20251205C6.5 (Call Option)
- Strike: $6.50
- Expiration: 2025-12-05
- IV: 154.41% (elevated)
- Leverage: 15.91%
- Delta: 0.4908 (moderate bullish exposure)
- Theta: -0.068 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.3468 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $11,635
- Payoff (5% downside): $0 (no profit if TMC drops)
- Why it stands out: High gamma could benefit from a rebound above $6.50, but theta decay risks eroding value if the move is delayed.

Trading Setup: Aggressive short-sellers should target TMC20251205P6.5 for a 5% downside play, while bulls may consider TMC20251219C6.5 (strike $6.00) for a potential rebound above $6.50. Watch for a breakdown below $5.16 to confirm bearish momentum.

Backtest TMC the metals Stock Performance
Here are the results of the event-study back-test you requested:Key take-aways• Sample size = 102 separate −9 % (or worse) intraday plunges between 2022-01-01 and 2025-12-01. • Day 1 (close-to-close) after the plunge shows a median loss of –1.4 % with just a 35 % win rate. • A recovery tendency appears after roughly one trading week: by Day 10 the mean return reaches +6.1 %, with the win-rate improving to ~53 %. • However, none of the positive average returns through the 30-day window are statistically significant at conventional confidence levels. • From Day 16 onward the rebound fades; by Day 30 the mean excess return contracts to +7.4 % versus a +11.8 % benchmark gain, leaving the strategy lagging buy-and-hold. • Overall, buying TMC after a –9 % intraday plunge has not delivered a reliable edge over simply holding the stock.Parameter notes (auto-selected by Aime)1. Price series: daily close (default) was used for return calculations. 2. Event definition: low ≤ 0.91 × prior-close (−9 % or more). 3. Analysis horizon: ±30 trading days around each event (engine default). 4. Back-test window: 2022-01-01 – 2025-12-01 (covers “from 2022 to now”). 5. No risk-control overlays were applied—results are pure buy-after-event, sell after 30 sessions.You can explore the full interactive event-back-testing dashboard below.Feel free to open the dashboard for a detailed view of cumulative P&L curves, distribution of returns, and per-event statistics. If you’d like to adjust the holding horizon, add stop-loss / take-profit filters, or compare with other stocks or thresholds, just let me know!

TMC at Crossroads: Regulatory Risks vs. Deep-Sea Mining Potential
TMC’s 8.76% drop reflects a critical juncture for the deep-sea mining sector. While regulatory delays and operational losses weigh heavily, the stock’s technicals and options volatility suggest a volatile near-term path. Investors must weigh the risk of further declines against potential catalysts like permit approvals or gold price surges. For now, the key levels to watch are $5.16 (30D support) and $6.50 (strike price for key options). As Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) rises 0.35%, TMC’s divergence highlights its speculative nature. Action: Short-term traders should prioritize TMC20251205P6.5 for a 5% downside bet, while long-term investors should await clearer regulatory signals before committing.