TMC Plunges 11.8% Amid Regulatory Uncertainty and Deep-Sea Mining Doubts

Summary
• TMC the metals (TMC) slumps 11.8% to $9.43, erasing $1.26 from its value in under 6 hours
• Intraday range spans $10.73 high to $9.31 low, signaling sharp volatility
• Options chain shows 133%+ implied volatility, with $9.50 strike calls/puts trading at 46%+ leverage ratios
• Trump’s U.S.-China trade rhetoric and TMC’s Q2 earnings miss drive sharp selloff

The Metals Company’s stock has imploded in late trading, driven by a confluence of regulatory headwinds, earnings underperformance, and geopolitical uncertainty. With the stock down 11.8% on the session and options volatility spiking to 133%, investors are scrambling to reassess the viability of deep-sea mining amid shifting U.S. policy and operational challenges.

Regulatory Delays and Earnings Shock Trigger Flight to Safety
TMC’s collapse stems from two critical catalysts: delayed U.S. regulatory approvals for deep-sea mining and a Q2 earnings miss that exposed operational fragility. Despite Trump’s executive order fast-tracking seabed projects, NOAA’s recent compliance confirmation has yet to translate into commercial permits, leaving TMC’s $23.6B NPV studies in limbo. Compounding this, the company reported a -$0.20 EPS loss (vs. -$0.05 expected) and announced a $40M share issuance to fund operations, triggering a liquidity crisis. The 10.2% insider selling and 15.7% leverage ratios on $9.50 puts highlight the growing skepticism about TMC’s ability to navigate both regulatory and financial hurdles.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Liquidity
• 200-day MA: $4.07 (far below) | RSI: 85.17 (overbought) | MACD: 1.16 (bullish) | Bollinger Bands: $4.07–$10.75
• 30D support: $5.12–$5.23 | 200D support: $1.66–$1.86

Top Options Contracts:
• TMC20251024P9 (Put):
- Strike: $9 | Expiry: 10/24 | IV: 133.85% | Delta: -0.3666 | Theta: -0.02305 | Gamma: 0.1796 | Turnover: $8,878
- High leverage (15.77%) and gamma (0.1796) suggest strong sensitivity to price swings
- 71.43% price change ratio indicates potential for rapid premium decay if TMC stabilizes
- Payoff at 5% downside ($8.95): $0.05/share profit
- Ideal for short-term bearish bets with defined risk

• TMC20251024C9.5 (Call):
- Strike: $9.50 | Expiry: 10/24 | IV: 141.80% | Delta: 0.5385 | Theta: -0.05878 | Gamma: 0.1897 | Turnover: $9,919
- Moderate delta (0.5385) and high gamma (0.1897) position it as a directional play
- -46.05% price change ratio suggests volatility compression if TMC rebounds
- Payoff at 5% downside ($8.95): Breakeven at $9.50, no profit
- Best for aggressive bulls expecting a rebound above $9.50

Trading Setup:
Key support at $9.31 (intraday low) and resistance at $10.73 (high) define the immediate range. With RSI at 85.17 and MACD above zero, the stock is technically overbought but lacks follow-through. Aggressive traders may short TMC20251024P9 against $9.31 support, while directional buyers could target TMC20251024C9.5 if $9.50 retests. Watch for volume spikes at $9.31–$9.50 to confirm trend direction.

Backtest TMC the metals Stock Performance
Here is the completed back-test of the “–12 % intraday plunge” strategy on TMC.O (Jan-2022 → 14-Oct-2025). A visual, drill-down report has been placed in the interactive panel—please open it to explore full trade logs, equity curve and distribution charts.Key take-aways (high-level):• Total return: +252 % (annualised ≈ 93 %). • Sharpe ratio: 0.83 — attractive but not outstanding relative to volatility. • Max draw-down: –82 %. The strategy is extremely lumpy; a deep valley precedes the strong gain. • Trade frequency is very low (only a few extreme plunges since 2022), so results are sensitive to single-event outcomes.Parameter notes (auto-completed):1. start_date “20220103” — first trading day of 2022, matching your request “from 2022”. 2. price_type “open” — common convention when entering the day after a signal formed. 3. No explicit risk-control module specified; results therefore reflect pure entry logic.Feel free to ask if you’d like additional filters (e.g., fixed holding period, take-profit / stop-loss) or to try the same logic on other tickers.

Act Now: Position for Regulatory Clarity or Deep-Sea Disruption
TMC’s 11.8% collapse underscores the precarious balance between policy momentum and operational reality. While the stock’s 913% YTD gain reflects high hopes for deep-sea mining, the Q2 earnings miss and regulatory delays have exposed its fragility. Investors must now weigh the likelihood of Trump-era policy tailwinds against the company’s $40M dilution and $0.20 EPS losses. For context, sector leader Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) fell -0.155% today, signaling broader mining sector caution. Immediate action: Short TMC20251024P9 if $9.31 holds, or buy TMC20251024C9.5 if $9.50 retests. Monitor NOAA’s next compliance update and Trump’s trade rhetoric for directional clues.