TMC Plummets 12.34% Amid Regulatory Delays and Environmental Scrutiny—Is the Deep-Sea Mining Gambit Crumbling?

Summary
• TMC’s stock slumps to $6.68, down 12.34% from $7.62, hitting a 52-week low of $1.02
• Intraday range of $6.64–$7.68 highlights sharp volatility amid sector-wide jitters
• Short interest surges 17.98% to 10.05%, while insider selling accelerates

The Metals Company (TMC) has plunged into a freefall, driven by a perfect storm of regulatory delays, steel sector instability, and aggressive shorting. With the stock now trading near its 52-week low, the question looms: Is this a buying opportunity for deep-sea mining’s long-term vision, or a warning sign of deeper structural risks?

Regulatory Delays and Environmental Concerns Trigger Flight from TMC
TMC’s 12.34% intraday collapse aligns with broader steel sector weakness, as global demand for critical minerals like nickel and cobalt falters. The company’s reliance on regulatory approval for deep-sea mining—still pending from the International Seabed Authority—has amplified investor anxiety. Recent news of U.S. efforts to extract minerals from mine waste and China’s record overseas mining investments further highlight TMC’s precarious position. Compounding this, TMC’s Q3 net loss of $185 million and lack of revenue have made it a prime target for short sellers, with 10.05% of its float sold short. The stock’s sharp decline reflects a loss of confidence in its ability to navigate regulatory and operational hurdles.

Metals and Mining Sector Volatility Intensifies as BHP Gains 1.79%
While TMC’s stock crumbles, the broader Metals and Mining sector remains mixed. BHP Group (BHP), the sector’s leader, has risen 1.79% on optimism around global critical mineral demand. Leveraged ETFs like Direxion Daily TSM Bull 2X Shares (TSMX) and GraniteShares 2x Long TSM Daily ETF (TSMU) have gained 1.81% and 1.61%, respectively, as investors hedge against sector-wide swings. However, TMC’s unique exposure to deep-sea mining and regulatory uncertainty isolates it from the sector’s broader momentum, making its decline more pronounced.

Options and ETFs to Navigate TMC’s Volatility: A Tactical Playbook
• MACD: 0.269 (above signal line 0.220), RSI: 48.29 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: 6.01–8.35 (current price near lower band)
• 200-day MA: $5.35 (well below current price), 30-day MA: $6.54 (resistance ahead)

TMC’s technicals suggest a bearish bias, with price testing the lower Bollinger Band and RSI hovering near oversold territory. The 200-day MA remains a critical support level. For leveraged exposure, Direxion Daily TSM Bull 2X Shares (TSMX) offers amplified upside if the stock rebounds, while GraniteShares 2x Long TSM Daily ETF (TSMU) provides a more moderate leveraged play. However, the options market reveals sharper opportunities:

• TMC20260102P6.5 (Put Option)
- Strike: $6.50, Expiration: 2026-01-02, IV: 123.33%, Leverage: 16.65%, Delta: -0.4093, Theta: -0.0133, Gamma: 0.3196, Turnover: 29,225
- IV (high volatility), Leverage (attractive for bearish bets), Gamma (sensitive to price swings) make this a top pick for a 5% downside scenario. Projected payoff: $0.245 per share if TMC drops to $6.40.

• TMC20260102C7.5 (Call Option)
- Strike: $7.50, Expiration: 2026-01-02, IV: 177.57%, Leverage: 23.79%, Delta: 0.3757, Theta: -0.0524, Gamma: 0.2167, Turnover: 27,222
- IV (elevated but manageable), Leverage (strong for bullish recovery), Theta (rapid time decay) suit a short-term rebound trade. Projected payoff: $0.755 per share if TMC rallies to $7.60.

Aggressive bulls may consider TMC20260102C7.5 into a bounce above $7.50, while bears should monitor TMC20260102P6.5 for a breakdown below $6.50.

Backtest TMC the metals Stock Performance
The backtest of TMC's performance after a -12% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 6.84% over 30 days, the 3-day and 10-day win rates were below 50%, indicating a higher probability of negative returns in the short term. The average returns over 3, 10, and 30 days were -0.10%, 1.78%, and 4.28%, respectively, suggesting that while there was some recovery, it was not consistently positive.

TMC’s Deep-Sea Gamble: Time to Anchor or Abandon?
TMC’s 12.34% plunge underscores the fragility of its deep-sea mining vision amid regulatory delays and sector-wide headwinds. While the stock’s technicals suggest a bearish near-term outlook, the long-term potential of critical mineral demand remains intact. Investors must weigh the risks of regulatory uncertainty against the sector’s resilience, as evidenced by BHP’s 1.79% gain. For now, key levels to watch include the 200-day MA at $5.35 and the 30-day MA at $6.54. Aggressive traders may find value in the TMC20260102P6.5 put option for a bearish bet, while bulls should monitor a potential rebound above $7.50. As the International Seabed Authority finalizes rules, TMC’s fate—and its stock—will hinge on regulatory clarity and global demand for EV metals.