TMC the Metals Surges 9.9% on Intraday Rally: What's Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• TMC the Metals (TMC) surges 9.8988% to $7.605, hitting an intraday high of $7.71
• Turnover spikes to 5.897 million shares, 3.18% of float
• Recent news highlights shareholder partnerships and deep-sea mining ambitions
• Analysts debate valuation after 476% YTD surge

The Metals Company (TMC) is experiencing a dramatic intraday rally, driven by a confluence of regulatory optimism, strategic partnerships, and speculative fervor. With a 9.9% jump from $6.92 to $7.605, the stock has pierced key resistance levels amid a flurry of news about government collaboration and deep-sea mineral extraction projects. Traders are now scrutinizing technical indicators and options activity to gauge the sustainability of this surge.

Government Partnership and Shareholder Collaboration Ignite TMC's Surge
TMC's explosive 9.9% move is directly tied to recent news of a shareholder partnership with government entities, as highlighted by Insider Monkey and Motley Fool. The company's deep-sea mining ambitions, particularly in the Clarion Clipperton Zone, have reignited interest in its ability to secure critical minerals for EV and energy storage markets. Additionally, a Motley Fool article titled 'Why The Metals Company's Share Price Is Popping' underscores renewed optimism around its commercial viability. These developments, combined with a 52-week high of $11.35 and a dynamic P/E of -8.44, suggest short-term speculative positioning amid long-term uncertainty.

MP Materials Leads Industrial Metals Sector Amid TMC's Rally
While TMC surges, MP Materials (MP) remains the sector leader with a 2.78% intraday gain. MP's focus on rare earth elements and its $203.85M revenue position it as a more stable counterpart to TMC's speculative volatility. The industrial metals sector is mixed, with TMC's 9.9% rally contrasting against MP's more measured performance. Analysts note that TMC's deep-sea mining narrative is distinct from MP's terrestrial operations, but both face regulatory and environmental scrutiny.

Options Playbook: Leveraging TMC's Volatility with Call Options
• 200-day average: $5.2362 (well below current price)
• RSI: 49.64 (neutral, no overbought/oversold signal)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $8.51, Middle $6.71, Lower $4.91 (price near upper band)
• MACD: 0.153 (bullish divergence with signal line 0.172)
• K-line pattern: Short-term bearish trend, long-term bullish

TMC's technicals suggest a continuation of its rally above key moving averages, with the 200-day line acting as a strong support. The stock's volatility, reflected in a 9.39% projected daily range, favors options strategies with high leverage and gamma sensitivity. Two top options from the chain are:

• TMC20251226C8
- Call option, strike $8, expiration 2025-12-26
- IV ratio: 153.44% (high volatility)
- Leverage ratio: 13.50%
- Delta: 0.4785 (moderate directional sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0595 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.2279 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $427,743
- Payoff at 5% upside: $0.76 (max(0, 7.6051.05 - 8))
- Why it stands out: High gamma and IV make this ideal for a short-term bullish bet with aggressive leverage.

• TMC20260102C8
- Call option, strike $8, expiration 2026-01-02
- IV ratio: 140.60% (moderate volatility)
- Leverage ratio: 10.26%
- Delta: 0.5047 (balanced directional exposure)
- Theta: -0.0378 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1819 (strong sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $30,191
- Payoff at 5% upside: $0.76 (max(0, 7.6051.05 - 8))
- Why it stands out: Slightly lower IV but higher liquidity and gamma make this a safer play for a mid-term rally.

Trading Insight: Aggressive bulls should prioritize TMC20251226C8 for a short-term pop above $8, while TMC20260102C8 offers a more balanced approach for a sustained move. Both contracts benefit from TMC's elevated volatility and gamma exposure.

Backtest TMC the metals Stock Performance
The backtest of TMC's performance after a 10% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 44.52%, the 10-Day win rate is 47.03%, and the 30-Day win rate is 55.71%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 23.17% over 30 days, suggesting that TMC can deliver significant gains even after the initial 10% surge.

TMC's Rally: A High-Volatility Play with Clear Entry Points
TMC's 9.9% surge is a high-risk, high-reward scenario driven by speculative positioning and regulatory optimism. While the stock's technicals suggest a continuation of its rally above the 200-day line, investors must monitor the $7.71 intraday high as a critical resistance. The sector leader, MP Materials (MP), has gained 2.78%, indicating mixed sentiment in industrial metals. For traders, the key is to capitalize on TMC's volatility through options with high gamma and IV, such as the TMC20251226C8 contract. Watch for a breakdown below $6.88 support or a breakout above $8.51 (Bollinger upper band) to confirm the move's sustainability. Action: Buy TMC20251226C8 if $7.71 holds; exit if $6.88 breaks.