TMC The Metals Company Plunges 11.04% — Can Regulatory Hurdles and Geopolitical Moves Explain This Freefall?

Summary
• TMC shares have cratered to $6.6273, down 11.04% from a 7.45 close, marking its worst intraday drop since 2023.
• Regulatory clashes with the International Seabed Authority and U.S. trade concessions to China are sparking fierce investor debate.
• Options volatility has spiked to 108.35%, with 20 contracts seeing over $130,000 in turnover.
• The stock now trades at 58.88 RSI, hovering near critical support levels at $6.52–6.59.

July 29 has become a pivotal day for TMC as its share price collapses amid a perfect storm of regulatory backlash and geopolitical recalibration. With the Trump administration lifting tech export restrictions to China, TMC’s deep-sea mining ambitions face existential questions. The stock’s intraday range—from 7.4155 highs to 6.62 lows—exposes a fragile market structure amid a sector-wide selloff led by Freeport-McMoRan’s -1.46% decline.

Regulatory Sabotage and Geopolitical Trade Concessions Trigger Investor Exodus
TMC’s 11.04% freefall stems from a dual crisis: regulatory roadblocks in international waters and U.S. trade policy shifts. The International Seabed Authority (ISA) has condemned TMC’s attempt to bypass its jurisdiction by seeking U.S. NOAA approval for deep-sea mining in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone. Simultaneously, the Trump administration’s decision to ease semiconductor exports to China—aimed at securing rare earth mineral access—has cast doubt on TMC’s growth narrative. Investors are now pricing in a scenario where U.S. seabed mining capabilities could be rendered obsolete by cheaper Chinese alternatives, eroding TMC’s $2.7B pre-revenue valuation.

Mining Sector Volatility Amplified by Freeport-McMoRan’s Weakness
TMC’s collapse mirrors broader mining sector fragility, with Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) down 1.46% as copper prices retreat 3%. While FCX’s decline reflects cyclical commodity pressure, TMC’s drop is driven by existential regulatory risks. Unlike FCX’s operational resilience in terrestrial mining, TMC’s reliance on unproven deep-sea mining frameworks leaves it uniquely exposed to ISA delays. The sector’s 200-day average of $4.0742 underscores TMC’s speculative premium, now under siege by geopolitical realignments.

Bearish Playbook: Options and Technicals for a Volatility-Driven Short-Side Setup
• 200-day MA: 2.6465 (far below current price)
• 30-day MA: 6.853 (resistance ahead)
• RSI: 58.88 (oversold territory)
• MACD: 0.542 vs. signal 0.588 (bearish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: 5.89–8.33 (price near lower band)

The technical setup favors a short-term bearish bias. Key support at $6.52–6.59 and resistance at $7.4155 define a volatile trading range. Options data reveals two high-conviction plays:

• TMC20250808P6.5 (Put):
- Strike: $6.50
- Expiry: Aug 8
- IV: 108.35% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: -0.409 (moderate price sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0089 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.3195 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $95,348
Why it stands out: This put option offers 110.53% price change potential with a 16.64% leverage ratio, ideal for a 5% downside scenario. Projected payoff: $0.1273 (K - ST).

• TMC20250815P7 (Put):
- Strike: $7.00
- Expiry: Aug 15
- IV: 132.15% (volatility premium)
- Delta: -0.507 (strong directional bias)
- Theta: -0.0110 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.2042 (responsive to price shifts)
- Turnover: $11,136
Why it stands out: A 56.45% price change and 6.86% leverage ratio make this contract ideal for a bearish breakout. Projected payoff: $0.3727 (K - ST).

Aggressive short-sellers should consider TMC20250808P6.5 into a breakdown below $6.52. For a mid-term play, TMC20250815P7 offers high gamma exposure if the stock gaps lower pre-Aug 15.

Backtest TMC the metals Stock Performance
The backtest of TMC's performance after an intraday plunge of -11% shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 48.58%, the 10-Day win rate is 48.99%, and the 30-Day win rate is 51.62%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 18.68%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that TMC has a good chance of recovery following a significant downturn.

Regulatory Crossroads: TMC’s Freefall Tests Investor Patience Amid Sector Uncertainty
TMC’s 11.04% plunge underscores the fragility of speculative mining plays in a regulatory and geopolitical crossfire. While the stock’s 52-week high of $8.63 remains a distant target, the immediate outlook hinges on ISA rulings and U.S.-China trade dynamics. Freeport-McMoRan’s -1.46% decline highlights sector-wide vulnerability, but TMC’s unique exposure to deep-sea mining regulations makes it a high-risk/high-reward proposition. Investors should monitor the $6.50 support level and watch for a shift in the ISA’s regulatory stance. A breakdown below $5.89416 could trigger a liquidity crisis for this pre-revenue company. Act now: Short TMC20250808P6.5 into the $6.52–6.59 support range or buy TMC20250815P7 for a mid-term bearish breakout.