TMC the Metals Company Skyrockets 9.77%—Will Geopolitical Shifts Reshape Deep-Sea Mining Forever?

Summary
• TMC surges 9.77% to $6.4436 amid U.S.-China trade developments
• Trump administration lifts AI chip export restrictions to China
• Sector peers like MP Materials rally 1.38% as TMC faces demand uncertainty
• Intraday range of $6.22–$6.69 highlights volatile response to policy shifts

TMC’s dramatic 9.77% gain reflects a market recalibration as investors weigh the implications of relaxed U.S. export controls on China. The stock’s sharp rebound from a 24.8% weekly drop underscores deepening skepticism about TMC’s seabed mining model if U.S.-China trade deals secure access to rare earths. With the sector at a crossroads, traders are pivoting to short-term options and ETFs to capitalize on near-term volatility.

Geopolitical Shifts Spark Volatility in Deep-Sea Mining Sector
The Trump administration’s decision to lift export restrictions on AI processors and semiconductor equipment to China has triggered a seismic shift in investor sentiment. TMC’s core business model—extracting seabed minerals for EVs and energy storage—now faces existential risk if U.S. access to Chinese rare earths becomes a trade negotiation lever. The 24.8% weekly selloff reflects fears that China’s mineral supply could reduce demand for TMC’s deep-sea mining operations. However, today’s 9.77% rebound suggests traders are betting on a delayed trade agreement, preserving TMC’s relevance in a race to secure alternative mineral sources.

Sector Peers Mixed as MP Materials Gains Ground
MP Materials (MP) rose 1.38% on the same geopolitical tailwinds, contrasting TMC’s volatility. While TMC’s deep-sea focus faces China-related headwinds, MP’s domestic rare earth refining operations benefit from U.S. mineral self-sufficiency goals. This divergence highlights the sector’s bifurcation: companies with terrestrial mining capabilities (like MP) gain traction, while seabed-focused peers like TMC face regulatory and geopolitical uncertainty.

Options and ETFs to Navigate TMC’s Volatility
• MACD: 0.093 (bearish divergence), Signal Line: 0.375, Histogram: -0.282
• RSI: 35.1 (oversold), Bollinger Bands: $5.67–$8.41
• 30D MA: $6.93, 200D MA: $2.75
• Key levels: Support at $6.54, resistance at $6.69

TMC’s 35.1 RSI suggests oversold conditions, but its 1.59 beta and -31.41 P/E ratio indicate structural risks. Traders should focus on short-term options with high gamma and implied volatility, as the stock’s 9.77% move today suggests sharp intraday swings.

TMC20250808C6 Call:
• Code: TMC20250808C6, Strike: $6, Expiry: 8/8
• IV: 159.37% (extremely volatile), Delta: 0.601 (moderate sensitivity), Gamma: 0.335 (high sensitivity to price swings), Theta: -0.071 (rapid time decay), Turnover: $189,308 (liquid).
• This call offers aggressive upside potential if TMC breaks above $6.69. A 5% price rise (to $6.76) would yield max profit of $0.76/share.

TMC20250815C6 Call:
• Code: TMC20250815C6, Strike: $6, Expiry: 8/15
• IV: 164.61%, Delta: 0.599, Gamma: 0.209, Theta: -0.0398, Turnover: $51,685.
• A safer play with lower time decay, this option balances liquidity and gamma for a controlled bet on a 7–10% rebound. A 5% move would generate $0.44/share profit.

Aggressive bulls should consider TMC20250808C6 into a test of $6.69 resistance. Conservative traders may prefer TMC20250815C6 for a lower-risk, higher-liquidity entry.

Backtest TMC the metals Stock Performance
The backtest of TMC's performance after an intraday surge of 10% indicates positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 42.11%, the 10-Day win rate is 45.45%, and the 30-Day win rate is 52.39%, suggesting that the stock tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of such a surge. The maximum return observed was 19.20% over 30 days, which implies that there is potential for significant price appreciation following the intraday surge.

Bullish Momentum Faces Crucial Juncture—Act Now or Watch Volatility Escalate
TMC’s 9.77% rally today underscores the market’s appetite for short-term bets on its geopolitical narrative, but the 24.8% weekly selloff highlights deepening risks. Investors must weigh the likelihood of a U.S.-China trade deal against TMC’s long-term value as a seabed mining pioneer. MP Materials’ 1.38% gain signals sector confidence in terrestrial alternatives, but TMC’s 52-week high of $8.63 remains a critical psychological threshold. For now, the options market favors short-term volatility plays, with TMC20250808C6 and TMC20250815C6 offering distinct risk/reward profiles. Watch for a break above $6.69 or a retest of $6.54 support to determine next steps.