TLRY Surges 21.86% Amid Trump's Cannabis Reclassification Hype: Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Tilray Brands (TLRY) surges 21.86% to $13.32, driven by Trump's potential marijuana policy shift
• Intraday range spans $10.50 to $13.49, signaling sharp volatility
• Sector peers like Canopy Growth (CGC) and Aurora Cannabis (ACB) also rally on regulatory optimism

Today’s explosive move in Tilray Brands reflects a confluence of regulatory speculation and product innovation. With President Trump’s rumored cannabis reclassification sparking sector-wide buying, TLRY’s 21.86% surge underscores the market’s anticipation of policy-driven growth. The stock’s intraday high of $13.49 and low of $10.50 highlight the frenzy, while sector peers like CGC and ACB mirror the bullish momentum.

Trump’s Policy Hype Fuels TLRY’s Volatility
Tilray’s 21.86% intraday surge is directly tied to President Trump’s announcement of potential cannabis reclassification from Schedule I to Schedule III. This regulatory shift could unlock research opportunities and reduce federal restrictions, spurring immediate buying action. The stock’s sharp rebound from $10.50 to $13.49 aligns with broader sector optimism, as investors bet on expanded market access and reduced operational hurdles. Additionally, Tilray’s recent launch of Redecan’s Live Resin Liquid Diamond Vapes in Canada reinforces its product innovation narrative, further fueling short-term enthusiasm.

Cannabis Sector Rally: TLRY Leads as Peers Follow Suit
The cannabis sector is experiencing a synchronized rally, with Tilray Brands (TLRY) outpacing peers like Canopy Growth (CGC, +14.46%) and Aurora Cannabis (ACB, +6.54%). This broad-based surge reflects shared optimism over Trump’s policy shift, which could benefit the entire industry by easing federal restrictions. However, Tilray’s sharper 21.86% move highlights its stronger market positioning, driven by product innovation and aggressive expansion into niche markets like Canada’s vape segment.

Options Playbook: Leveraging TLRY’s Volatility with High-Leverage Calls
• RSI: 84.36 (overbought)
• MACD: 2.37 (bullish), Signal: 1.61, Histogram: 0.75
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $12.74, Middle $4.69, Lower -$3.36
• 200D MA: $1.23 (far below current price)

TLRY’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, but the stock’s momentum remains intact due to regulatory optimism. Key resistance lies at $13.49 (intraday high), with support at $10.50 (open). A breakout above $13.49 could target $14.50, aligning with the 52W high of $23.20. The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays:

• TLRY20251226C13
- Strike: $13, Expiry: 12/26
- IV: 181.43% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.594 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.097 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.092 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $69,189 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 7.32% (moderate)
- Payoff (5% up): $0.67 per share (max(0, 13.98 - 13))
- Why: High gamma and IV make this ideal for a short-term rally, with liquidity ensuring easy entry/exit.

• TLRY20260102C13
- Strike: $13, Expiry: 1/2
- IV: 184.29% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.606 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.072 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.071 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $74,145 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 5.77% (moderate)
- Payoff (5% up): $0.67 per share (max(0, 13.98 - 13))
- Why: Extended expiry (1/2) offers more time for the policy narrative to play out, with high IV and gamma amplifying gains.

Aggressive bulls should prioritize TLRY20251226C13 for a quick scalp above $13.49, while longer-term players may target TLRY20260102C13 if the $13.49 level holds.

Backtest Tilray Brands Stock Performance
The backtest of TLRY's performance after a 22% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is high at 44.71%, the 10-day win rate is slightly lower at 41.35%, and the 30-day win rate is comparable at 44.23%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 4.18%, which occurred on day 32, indicating that while there is potential for gains, the stock can also experience volatility.

TLRY’s Regulatory Hype: Ride the Wave or Watch the Volatility?
Tilray’s 21.86% surge hinges on the sustainability of Trump’s cannabis reclassification narrative. While the stock’s technicals suggest overbought conditions, the regulatory tailwind and product innovation provide a strong near-term catalyst. Investors should monitor the $13.49 intraday high as a critical breakout level—holding above this could validate the bullish case. Sector leader Canopy Growth (CGC) is up 14.46%, reinforcing the sector’s momentum. Act now: Buy TLRY20251226C13 if $13.49 breaks, or short-term traders can scalp the $13.49–$14.50 range with tight stops.